Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Canadian Jobs Plunge in August As Unemployment Rises

In a real shocker, Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment dropped by 51,600, retracing most of the 54,100 gain in July. Economists had been expecting a much stronger number, but the Labour Force Survey is notoriously volatile, and job gains continue to average 14,000 per month over the past year. Full-time employment growth has run at about twice the pace at an average monthly increase of 27,000. Labour markets remain very tight across the country.

The unemployment rate returned to its June level of 6.0%, ticking up from 5.8% in July. July’s jobless figure matched a more than four-decade low. At 6.0%, the unemployment rate is 0.2 percentage points below the level one year ago.

All of the job loss last month was in part-time work, down 92,000, while full-time employment rose by 40,400. The strength in full-time jobs is a sign that the labour market is stronger than the headline numbers for August suggest.

On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 172,000 or 0.9%. Full-time employment increased (+326,000 or +2.2%), while the number of people working part-time declined (-154,000 or -4.3%). Over the same period, total hours worked were up 1.6%.

Statistics Canada commented that monthly shifts in part-time employment could result from movements between part-time and full-time work, the flux of younger and older workers in and out of the labour force, changes in employment in industries where part-time work is relatively common, or deviations from typical seasonal patterns.

By industry, the decline was broadly based and included a loss of 16,400 jobs in construction and 22,100 in the professional services sector. The number of people working in wholesale and retail trade declined by 20,000, driven by Quebec and Ontario.

Job losses were huge in Ontario as employment increased in Alberta and Manitoba. Employment was little changed in the other provinces.

After two consecutive monthly increases, employment in Ontario fell by 80,000 in August, which was the province’s most significant job loss since 2009. All of the decline was in part-time work. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario employment increased by 79,000 (+1.1%). The Ontario unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points in August, to 5.7% (see table below).

In Ontario, full-time employment held steady compared with the previous month, with year-over-year gains totalling 172,000 (+3.0%). Part-time jobs fell by 80,000 in August, following a roughly equivalent rise in July. In the 12 months to August, part-time work decreased by 93,000 (-6.7%).
Employment in Alberta rose by 16,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 6.7% as more people participated in the labour market. Compared with August 2017, employment grew by 53,000 (+2.3%), mostly in full-time work.

In Manitoba, employment rose by 2,600, driven by gains in part-time work, and the unemployment rate was 5.8%. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the province was unchanged, while the unemployment rate increased 0.8 percentage points as more people looked for work.

In British Columbia, employment edged up and the unemployment rate increased 0.3 percentage points to 5.3% as more people searched for work. Compared with a year earlier, employment was virtually unchanged.

Wage gains decelerated to their lowest level this year as average hourly earnings were up 2.9% y/y, the slowest pace since December.

There is no real urgency for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates as the economy shows little risk of overheating. So far in 2018, the economy has shed 14,600 jobs, but the number masks a 97,300 gain in full-time work. Part-time employment is down by 111,900 this year.

The economy is running at or near full-employment as job vacancies continue to mount. If a NAFTA agreement comes to fruition, it is still likely the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates once again at the policy meeting in October. The Bank of Canada guided in that direction yesterday when Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins said the central bank’s top officials debated this week whether to accelerate the pace of potential interest rate hikes, before finally choosing to stick to their current “gradual” path.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

DLC BLOG
Subject Free Offers; Still Risky!

The majority of my clients have stellar qualifications: established careers and businesses, excellent credit ratings, solid down payment funds, etc. They are truly awesome individuals who will almost certainly receive mortgage financing without a hitch.

Almost certainly.

With multiple offers, bidding wars, and over-asking-price bids now common as far afield from Vancouver proper as Port Coquitlam and beyond, clients find themselves, in the heat of the experience, contemplating a subject-free offer.

But there’s often an unanticipated hitch: the property itself.

A client would be hard pressed to find a Realtor to write an offer without a ‘subject to inspection‘clause, and for good reason. Similarly, a client should be hard pressed to find a Mortgage Broker advising an offer without a ‘subject to financing‘ clause.

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Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Poloz Holds The Line On Rates
Bank on Hold As Housing Expected to Continue to Slow
As expected, the Bank of Canada held its key overnight rate this morning at 1.5%, asserting that July’s surprising spike in CPI inflation to 3% was in large part because of a jump in airfares. The Bank expects inflation to move back towards 2% in early 2019, as the effects of past increases in gasoline prices dissipate. The Bank’s core measures of inflation remain firmly around 2%, consistent with an economy that has been bumping up against full capacity for some time. Wage growth, as well, remains moderate.

Incoming information on the global economy is consistent with the Bank’s forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The U.S. economy has been particularly strong, growing at a 4.2% rate in the second quarter. This compares to Canada’s growth rate of 2.9% last quarter, which follows a 1.4% pace of economic expansion in Q1. Second quarter growth in the U.S. was boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment. In Canada, third quarter growth is expected to slow temporarily, mainly because of fluctuations in energy production and exports.

Indeed, this morning, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s trade deficit all but disappeared. A sharp export gain to the U.S. combined with a decline in imports took Canada’s overall merchandise trade deficit to its lowest level since December 2016.

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with the U.S., targeted by President Donald Trump in NAFTA negotiations, grew to the widest in a decade. Stats Canada said that gains in global exports were led by automobiles and energy, almost all of which were bound for the U.S. Crude oil led the energy gains as prices rose 9.4% in July. The import decline was driven by aircraft and metal ores.

These figures are likely to impact the resumption of bilateral talks in Washington regarding NAFTA, as the Trump administration has negotiated a new deal with Mexico and has threatened to leave Canada out and impose stiff auto tariffs if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government does not make concessions, especially on dairy supply management and dispute mechanisms.

The Bank of Canada highlighted that “elevated trade tensions remain a key risk to the global outlook and are pulling some commodity prices lower…The Bank is also monitoring the course of NAFTA negotiations and other trade policy development closely, and their impact on the inflation outlook.”

It was wise of the Bank of Canada to hold its powder dry at today’s policy meeting given the continued uncertainty on the NAFTA front. An agreement on NAFTA would provide the central bank with more comfort in moving ahead with a hiking cycle that has already lifted the benchmark overnight rate four times since mid-2017.

Noting that “activity in the housing market is beginning to stabilize as households adjust to higher interest rates and changes in housing policies”, the Bank reaffirmed that the economy is doing well enough to require higher interest rates in the future to achieve the inflation target. Another rate hike could come as soon as the next policy meeting on October 24th.

It is widely expected that a NAFTA deal will have come to fruition by then, opening the way for the Bank to resume monetary tightening. According to Bloomberg News, “Investors see near-certain odds that by October, the Bank of Canada will raise borrowing costs for the fifth time since the hiking cycle began in July 2017, with as many as two additional increases by mid-2019.”

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

DLC BLOG
4 Mortgage Steps to Overcoming High Consumer Debt

Client success stories are what make our job WORTH IT (We think most mortgage brokers would agree). So, with this in mind, we are sharing a recent client’s story that allowed them to not only purchase the home they wanted, but also pay down their own debt.

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DLC BLOG
Bridge Loans

If you have ever sold your home in order to help with the purchase of your next home, chances are you have heard of bridge financing.

Bridge financing is an option available to homeowners if they find themselves in a little bit of a pinch when it comes to two different completion dates.

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Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Q2 Canadian Growth Rebounded to 2.9%

This morning, Stats Canada released the second quarter GDP figures indicating a sharp rebound in growth to its most robust pace in a year. Real gross domestic product growth accelerated to 2.9% (all figures quoted in annual rates), up sharply from the 1.4% pace in Q1. The Q2 result is only slightly above the Bank of Canada’s 2.8% forecast released in the April Monetary Policy Report, tempering the expectation of a BoC rate hike at next Wednesday’s policy meeting.

First quarter growth had been depressed by a plunge in housing* (see note below), which fell by a whopping 10.5% annual rate in Q1. Investment in housing increased to a modest 1.1% annual rate in the second quarter. Declines in ownership transfer costs continued, but at a more modest pace than in Q1, while new residential construction contracted for the first time since the third quarter of 2016.However, these declines were more than offset by a sharp gain in outlays for renovations.

The strengthening growth in Q2 mainly reflected a surge in exports (+12.3%)–the biggest quarterly gain since 2014–due in part to notable increases in energy products and consumer goods, particularly pharmaceutical products. Exports of aircraft, aircraft engines, and aircraft parts increased sharply on higher shipments of business jets to both the U.S. and non-U.S. countries. Exports of services edged down a bit. Net exports (exports minus imports of goods and services) grew at a 6.5% annual rate in Q2 compared to 4.2% in the prior quarter.

Also boosting growth was stronger consumer spending. Household final consumption expenditure (+2.6%) increased at more than twice the pace of the first quarter, reversing the downward trend over the previous three quarters. Growth was attributable primarily to outlays on services (+3.2%), which outpaced outlays on goods. Housing-related expenses (housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels), up at a 2.4% annual rate, contributed the most to the widespread growth in consumption of services.

Household spending on goods grew at a 2% annual rate following a flat first quarter, with rebounds in semi-durable and non-durable goods. Purchases of vehicles declined at a 2% annual rate. One negative in the consumption numbers may be that the increased spending was financed by a lower household savings rate. The consumer saving rate fell to 3.4% in Q2 compared to 3.9% in Q1 and 4.5% in the final quarter of last year.

Despite the sharp improvement in growth in Q2, market watchers might be disappointed as slowing business investment brought growth in below the 3.5% forecast of some Bay Street economists. The Canadian dollar dropped in immediate response to the report.

Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment and computers and computer peripheral equipment decelerated to its slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2016, which might well have reflected the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of NAFTA and the imposition of tariffs on a growing number of Canadian exports to the U.S. Business sentiment and investment in capital formation is an important leading indicator of future growth, so the Q2 slowdown bodes poorly for the outlook. Most analysts are forecasting a marked slowdown in GDP growth in the current quarter to less than 2%.

Interest Rate Outlook

In light of the deceleration in business investment, the Bank of Canada has little reason to hike interest rates at the Bank’s next policy meeting on September 5. Investors are betting that a rate hike in October is a near certainty according to Bloomberg Canada.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz played down inflation worries and the prospect of aggressive interest rate increases last week at a Fed conference in the U.S. Poloz argued that the recent spike in inflation to 3% in July, the highest in the G-7, was due to transitory factors that would eventually be reversed. The wage measures in today’s GDP report, along with the separate May employment earnings numbers, point to the Bank of Canada’s ‘wage-common’ measure rising 2.4% in Q2, little changed from the increase in the first quarter.

Even though Canada is bumping up against capacity constraints and labour shortages are rising, Governor Poloz appears to be in no hurry to bring interest rates all the way back to non-stimulative levels. He has repeatedly made a case for gradualism citing heightened uncertainty over geopolitics and trade as well as economists’ inability to measure critical parameters like potential growth.

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate four times since July 2017 to cool the economy, and market indicators suggest investors are expecting as many as three more hikes over the next year, after which the central bank is anticipated to go into a long pause. That will leave the target for the benchmark rate, currently at 1.5%, at 2.25%–below the 3% “neutral” rate the Bank estimates as a final, non-stimulative resting place for overnight borrowing costs.

Notes:

*Housing investment in the GDP accounts is technically called “Gross fixed capital formation in residential structures”. It includes three major elements:

new residential construction;
renovations; and
ownership transfer costs.
New residential construction is the most significant component. Renovations to existing residential structures are the second largest element of housing investment. Ownership transfer costs include all costs associated with the transfer of a residential asset from one owner to another. These costs are as follows:

real estate commissions;
land transfer taxes;
legal costs (fees paid to notaries, surveyors, experts, etc.); and
file review costs (inspection and surveying).

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

DLC BLOG
Your mortgage broker is here to help

For many people in Canada, they are first-time home buyers. Or if they are new to Canada, it’s their first home purchase in a new country. They may not be aware of the rules and guidelines. It’s the job of your mortgage broker to make you aware of what is expected from you to avoid disappointment.

Mortgage Documentation
90-day bank statements – It’s important to make your clients aware that they need 90 days of bank statements to show they have saved the funds needed for the down payment and closing costs. Closing costs vary by province, so it’s important to let out-of-province buyers know exactly what the costs are in their new home. I like to explain that the 90-day statements is meant to prevent money laundering. A few years before this law was enacted, gangs would find an elderly couple and offer them the down payment funds asking only to be allowed to grow a few plants in the basement.

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DLC BLOG
Is easy money coming to an end?
In a previous post, I discussed interest rates and their effect on real estate values. I argued that they did indeed alter buyer perceptions, and consequently value and price. But what about absolute interest rate levels? Is easy money coming to an end?

Many lack any experience of high interest rates
In a June 5, 2017 Globe and Mail article entitled Remember When: What have we learned from the 1980’s and that 21% interest rate?, author Richard Blackwell quotes CIBC World Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal “We have a generation of Canadians who have never experienced high, or even rising, interest rates,”. He goes on to say “For them, those extremely low interest rates are a given.” Are interest rates likely to test those levels in the future? Likely not, for a host of reasons. First, inflationary pressures seem not to be as prevalent. Yes, you could argue there is price volatility, and a quick trip to the local gas station will confirm that opinion. However globalization seems to have had a positive impact over the past several years.

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DLC BLOG
What happens when your credit card account is closed

I have been working in the mortgage industry since 2005. I have had all sorts of clients over the years. Every once in a while I get someone who has a car loan , a couple of credit cards but there’s a collection from a credit card, a dentist or some other creditor.

When I ask why this has not been paid, I am told that they had a dispute with this firm and they are not going to be pushed around. The client doesn’t care if the account is sent to collection, they won’t pay it just on principle.

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DLC BLOG
Reverse Mortgage – Need to Know

HomeEquity Bank is the only bank in Canada that currently offers the CHIP Reverse Mortgage as well as a secondary product, Income Advantage. These two products are options for homeowners unlike anything else out there. Instead of borrowing money to purchase a house, they will lend you money if you already have purchased one (as long as you qualify).

Recently I finished a half-day seminar where I was educated on the different HomeEquity Bank offers through the CHIP Reverse mortgage and their Income Advantage products. Below I would like to share with you some of the key benefits and summarize the different ways you can potentially use these products.

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