22 Dec

Top 5 costly financial mistakes homeowners make with their mortgage

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

Top 5 costly financial mistakes homeowners make with their mortgage

Top 5 costly financial mistakes homeowners make with their mortgage1. Not consolidating high interest debt into low interest mortgage.
2. Paying “fees” to get the lower rate
3. Not looking at their long term forecast
4. Taking a 5 year rate when 3-4 years can be cheaper
5. Having their mortgage with a lender that has high penalties and restrictive clauses.

                                                CLICK HERE TO READ MORE 

19 Dec

Much Ado About Almost Nothing–Non-Resident Ownership of Housing

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Much Ado About Almost Nothing–Non-Resident Ownership of Housing

May's employment growth builds on gains since July 2016
Statistics Canada in conjunction with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their first report this morning from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP), providing data regarding the non-resident ownership of Canadian housing. This program was mandated by the last federal budget, filling in a significant data gap in housing statistics. For years, many have speculated that foreigners were the major culprits driving housing prices into nosebleed regions in Vancouver and Toronto. Today’s release shows that non-residents own less than five percent of housing in both cities.

Immigration remains a significant driver of housing activity in Canada. Canada has the most robust population growth in the G7, three-quarters of which is attributable to immigration and foreigners moving to Canada will be of growing importance in the future. But the report showed that non-residents – defined as both foreigners and Canadians whose principal residences are outside of Canada, irrespective of citizenship – are not the primary cause of the housing affordability problem in Canada’s two largest cities.

Many have blamed foreigners– mainly the Chinese–for the sky-high prices that have surged in the past three years–pricing many Millennials out of the housing market. A voter backlash spurred provincial governments to introduce a 15% tax on non-resident buyers in Vancouver (August 2016) and Toronto (April 2017), though earlier available data showed that foreign purchases were only between 5 and 10 percent of all home sales. In both regions, the tax slowed housing activity mainly by changing psychology. New listings surged, and buyers became more cautious as their options improved with more supply and lower prices. Other measures to slow housing activity by government and financial institution regulators have led many to assert that “boomers have priced millennials out of the housing market.”

Data revealed that non-residents (individuals whose principal dwelling is outside of Canada) owned 3.4% of all residential properties in the Toronto census metropolitan area (CMA), while the value of these homes accounted for 3.0% of the total residential property value in that metro area. In the Vancouver CMA, non-residents owned 4.8% of residential properties, accounting for 5.1% of total residential property value.
Estimates of non-resident ownership varied by property type. In both metropolitan areas, non-resident ownership was more prevalent for condominium-apartments. Non-residents owned 7.2% of condominium-apartments in the Toronto CMA and 7.9% of these units in the Vancouver CMA. By comparison, non-residents held 2.1% of single-detached houses in the Toronto CMA and 3.2% of single-detached homes in the Vancouver.
Over the past decade, home prices have accelerated markedly in Canada’s largest urban areas, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association Home Price Index show prices increased 173.7% in Vancouver from January 2005 to November 2017, while they rose 145.0% in Toronto over the same period. The last three years have been particularly telling, with house prices in Vancouver increasing by more than 60% and in Toronto by more than 40%, triggering great concern about housing affordability.
Below are two infographics produced by Statistics Canada giving more regional detail on non-resident ownership in Vancouver and Toronto. Breaking down the metro regions by municipalities, across the Vancouver CMA, non-resident ownership was most concentrated in the City of Vancouver (7.6%), followed by Richmond (7.5%) and West Vancouver (6.2%). In the Toronto CMA, the shares of non-resident owned properties were most substantial in the municipalities of Toronto (4.9%), followed by Richmond Hill (3.6%) and Markham (3.3%).
Largest Share of Non-Resident Ownership Is High-Price Condos
The most significant share of non-resident ownership in both CMAs was for condominiums, at 7.9% in the Vancouver and 7.2% in the Toronto. (See table below).
In Vancouver, almost two-thirds of non-resident owned properties were condominiums, while in Toronto, this share was close to half. Although the majority of condos were apartments, some were also single-detached houses, semi-detached houses and row houses.
Across the Vancouver CMA, 50.1% of condominium-apartments owned by non-residents were in the City of Vancouver, while 14.9% were in Richmond. In the Toronto CMA, non-resident owned condominium-apartments were primarily located in the City of Toronto (82.8%) and Mississauga (8.6%).
In the Vancouver CMA, the average value of a condominium-apartment owned by non-residents was 30.4% higher than that of a resident held condo-apartment. The City of Vancouver had the highest rate of non-resident ownership of condo-apartments within the CMA. The average value of these apartments was approximately $930,600, which was 25.6% higher than resident-owned.
The relative disparity between non-resident condo prices and resident condo prices in Toronto was much smaller than in Vancouver. In the Toronto CMA, non-resident owned condominium-apartments were on average 8.7% more expensive than resident owned. The City of Toronto had the highest concentration of non-resident owned condo-apartments in the CMA, which were on average valued at $439,000, or 7.6% more expensive than resident-owned.
Same is true for Non-Resident Owned Single-Family Homes–More Expensive Than Resident-Owned
For the Vancouver CMA, the average value of a single-detached house owned by non-residents was approximately $2.3 million compared with $1.6 million for resident held. These differences were most pronounced in the Greater Vancouver A subdivision, the City of Vancouver and West Vancouver. In Greater Vancouver A, single-detached houses owned by non-residents had an average value of nearly $8 million, while those owned by residents had an average value of $5.3 million. The average size of a single-detached house held by non-residents in this district was close to 4,800 square feet, 32.2% larger than the average size of single-detached dwellings owned by residents.
In the Toronto CMA, single-detached houses owned by non-residents were on average 12.3% or $103,500 more expensive than homes owned by residents. Differences in average values for single-detached dwellings were most marked in the municipalities of Markham, Richmond Hill and Toronto. In Markham, the average value of single-detached houses owned by non-residents was close to $1.1 million compared with $997,500 for resident owners. In Richmond Hill, non-resident held single-detached homes were, on average, valued at $1.2 million compared with $1.1 million for resident owned houses. In the City of Toronto, a non-resident owned single-detached house was, on average, valued at just over $1 million compared with $965,800 for a resident owned home. These differences, once again, are much smaller in the GTA than in the GVA.

Bottom Line: Non-residents represent a significantly more important factor in the Vancouver region than in the Toronto CMA, as expected. Moreover, non-residents purchase markedly more expensive properties compared to residents in Vancouver than in Toronto.
Wealthy Chinese nationals are a more significant factor in Vancouver than in Toronto, which has been the case for many years–not surprising given the geography. Moreover, many Chinese nationals began buying properties in the Vancouver CMA well in advance of the July 1997 handover of Hong Kong from the United Kingdom to China. Chinese have continued to find the Vancouver region an attractive haven for capital despite the imposition of capital controls in China.
Many are non-residents and have not rented their properties. In consequence, there are relatively more vacant properties in Vancouver than in Toronto. The Vancouver city council approved a tax on empty homes, the first of its kind in Canada, in early 2017, with the first payments due in 2018. Self-reporting owners will be assessed a one percent tax on homes that are not principal residences or aren’t rented for at least six months of the year. Though a similar tax has been discussed by the Toronto city council, to date, it has not had legs.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

15 Dec

New Mortgage Rules Coming Jan 1 Boost November Home Sales

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

New Mortgage Rules Coming Jan 1 Boost November Home Sales

May's employment growth builds on gains since July 2016
So here we are in the lead-up to the January 1 implementation of the new OSFI B-20 regulations requiring that uninsured borrowers be stress-tested at a mortgage rate 200 basis points above the contract rate at federally regulated financial institutions. It is no surprise that home sales rose in advance of the new ruling. Even so, activity remains below peak levels earlier this year and prices continue to fall in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) for the seventh consecutive month.

In a speech this week, Governor Poloz of the Bank of Canada confirmed his continued concern about household indebtedness. Indeed, data released this week by Statistics Canada showed that households continued to pile on debt in the third quarter. The household-debt-to-disposable-income ratio rose by a percentage point to 171.1% last quarter. Relative to assets and net worth, debt also edged higher, but those ratios are much closer to longer run levels, painting a far less dire picture of household finances. And even with households taking on more debt, the share of income needed to service that debt was little changed in Q3, as it has been over the last decade. That will change as the Bank of Canada continues to raise interest rates gradually. However, the prevalence of fixed rate mortgage debt means households won’t feel the increase all at once. Instead, the debt service ratio is likely to rise only gradually. The rising cost of borrowing and more stable home prices should slow credit growth in the year ahead.

But with so much attention paid to the imprudent borrower, I think it is important to reiterate that the vast majority of Canadians responsibly manage their finances. For example, roughly 40% of homeowners are mortgage-free, and one-third of all households are debt-free. Another 25% of households have less than $25,000 in debt, so 58% of Canadian households are nearly debt free. Hence, mortgage delinquency rates are meagre.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported yesterday that home sales jumped 3.9% from October to November–the second most significant increase in two years. Home sales have now risen for the fourth consecutive month, led by a 16% jump in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), which accounted for two-thirds of the national rise. Even so, sales activity in the GTA was significantly below year-ago levels. Victoria, Ottawa and Regina also recorded strong gains, while Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal posted modest increases.

Not all markets participated in the rally, though. Vancouver was among the few holdouts. Resales fell for a second-straight month by 3.7% in the Vancouver area where affordability strains represent a major issue for buyers.

New Listings Shot Up

Many sellers decided to list their properties ahead of the mortgage rule changes. New listings rose by 3.5% in Canada between October and November. Most of this increase took place in the Toronto area where new listings jumped by a whopping 22.9%. A report released earlier this month by the Toronto Real Estate Board showed that active listings in Toronto rose modestly above their 10-year average in recent months after plunging to historic lows at the start of this year. Pressure has come off Toronto-area buyers as they are now presented with more options. This could soon be the case in Vancouver too. New listings rose sharply in November and, with resales declining in the past couple of months, the sales-to-new listings ratio is finally moving toward more balanced conditions (see charts below).

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 4.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2017 – down slightly from 4.9 months in October and around 5 months recorded over the summer months, and within close reach of the long-term average of 5.2 months. At 2.4 months, the number of months of inventory in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region is up sharply from the all-time low of 0.8 months reached in February and March.

Price Pressures Eased

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 9.3% y-o-y in November 2017 marking a further deceleration in y-o-y gains that began in the spring and the smallest increase since February 2016. The slowdown in price gains mainly reflects softening price trends in the Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, particularly for single-family homes.

Toronto single-family house prices were down 11.6% over the past six months ending November 30 (see chart below). GTA condo prices have fared better, up 0.3% since late May, but the rise is minuscule in comparison to the booming price gains evidenced before the Ontario government’s ‘Fair Housing Plan’ that introduced, among other things, a 15% tax on non-resident foreign purchases of homes.

On a year-over-year basis, benchmark home prices were up in 11 of the 13 markets tracked by the MLS HPI. After having dipped in the second half of last year, benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia have recovered and now stand at new highs (Greater Vancouver: +14% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +18.5% y-o-y). Benchmark home prices rose by about 14% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria and by 18.5% elsewhere on Vancouver Island in November, on par with y-o-y gains in October.

Price gains have slowed considerably on a y-o-y basis in Greater Toronto, Oakville-Milton and Guelph but remain above year-ago levels (Greater Toronto: +8.4% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: +3.5% y-o-y; Guelph: +13.4% y-o-y).

Calgary benchmark home prices remained just inside positive territory on a y-o-y basis (+0.3%), while prices in Regina and Saskatoon were down from last November (-3.5% y-o-y and -4.1% y-o-y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose 6.7% y-o-y in Ottawa, led by a 7.6% increase in two-storey single-family home prices, by 5.6% in Greater Montreal, driven by an 8.3% increase in prices for townhouse/row units, and by 4.6% in Greater Moncton, led by a 7.8% increase in one-storey single-family home prices. (see table below)

The MLS® Home Price Index provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to be strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

15 Dec

What is a cash back mortgage?

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

What is a cash back mortgage?

What is a cash back mortgage?Every once in a while, a bank will advertise a cash back mortgage. It sounds great but there are a few things to consider.
When you purchase a home, you may find that you need some extra cash. You may want to renovate, purchase some furniture, or start on building a fence or landscaping.. Fortunately, some Canadian lenders offer mortgages that give you a cash back rebate when you take out your mortgage.

                                                CLICK HERE TO READ MORE 

13 Dec

Is it time to lock in a variable rate mortgage?

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

Is it time to lock in a variable rate mortgage?

Is it time to lock in a variable rate mortgage?Approximately 32 per cent of Canadians are in a variable rate mortgage, which with rates effectively declining steadily for the better part of the last ten years has worked well.

Recent increases triggers questions and concerns, and these questions and concerns are best expressed verbally with a direct call to your independent mortgage expert – not directly with the lender. There are nuances you may not think to consider before you lock in, and that almost certainly will not be primary topics for your lender.

                                                CLICK HERE TO READ MORE 

10 Dec

Returning To The ‘A-Side’

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

Returning To The ‘A-Side’

Returning To The ‘A-Side’Every year Canadian families are caught in unexpected bad circumstances only to find out that in most cases the banks and the credit unions are there (to lend you money) only in the good times, not so much during the bad times.

                                                CLICK HERE TO READ MORE 

7 Dec

No Surprises from the Bank of Canada

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

No Surprises from the Bank of Canada

Bank on Hold As Housing Expected to Continue to Slow
Holds Steady–Will Raise Rates Only Cautiously

The Bank of Canada held overnight interest rates at 1.0% once again, following the two consecutive rate hikes at the July and September meetings. It was widely expected that the Bank would retake a breather this round despite the much stronger than expected November employment report and the recent uptick in inflation. The central bank sees ongoing slack in the labour market, likely referring to continued weakness in average hours worked. As well, the Bank noted that “despite, the rising employment and participation rates, other indicators point to ongoing–albeit diminishing–slack in the labour market.” The rise in inflation was deemed to be short-lived, mainly reflecting the increase in gasoline prices. Third-quarter GDP growth, in contrast, was in line with the Bank’s expectations at 1.7%. Canadian growth was expected to slow in Q3 while remaining above potential in the second half of this year.

Consumer spending has remained very strong, and business investment and public infrastructure spending are contributing to growth. The Q3 sharp decline in exports is expected to be temporary. “Housing has continued to moderate, as expected.”

The Governing Council reiterated caution as the global economy is subject to considerable uncertainty, notably in geopolitical developments and trade policies. The NAFTA negotiations remain a cause for concern. “While higher interest rates will likely be required over time, Governing Council will continue to be cautious, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.”

Bottom Line: The central bank is in no hurry to slow the economy and even though, by their estimate, interest rates are still two full percentage points below what it would consider “neutral.” The policy statement cited buoyant global growth, higher oil prices and eased financial conditions, but uncertainty and caution dominated the theme. In contrast to prior reports, any reference to the Canadian dollar was removed. The dollar had strengthened earlier this year but has slumped since September, falling further today. The bond and stock markets rallied on this news.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

6 Dec

OSFI mortgage changes are coming

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

OSFI mortgage changes are coming

OSFI mortgage changes are coming

As many of you may remember, this past October the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) issued a revision to Guideline B-20 . The changes will go into effect on January 1, 2018 but lenders are expecting to roll this rules out to their consumers between December 7th – 15th, and will require conventional mortgage applicants to qualify at the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate or the customer’s mortgage interest rate +2%, whichever is greater.

OSFI is implementing these changes for all federally regulated financial institutions. What this means is that certain clients looking to purchase a home or refinance their current mortgage could have their borrowing power reduced.

                                                CLICK HERE TO READ MORE 

4 Dec

3 Mortgage Terms You Need to Know

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

3 Mortgage Terms You Need to Know

3 Mortgage Terms You Need to KnowPrepayment, Portability and Assumability

Prepayments

One of the most common questions we get is about mortgage prepayments. The conditions vary from lender to lender but the nice thing about prepayments is that you can pay a little more every year if you want to pay off your mortage faster. A great way to do this is through prepayments.

                                                CLICK HERE TO READ MORE 

1 Dec

Incredibly Strong Jobs Report in November, Q3 GDP Growth Slowed On Weak Exports and Housing

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Incredibly Strong Jobs Report in November, Q3 GDP Growth Slowed On Weak Exports and Housing

Canadian Jobs Beat Expectation in March, But Wage Growth Is Sluggish
The highly anticipated November Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Stats Canada, surpassed all forecasts breaking multi-year records. Employers added a whopping 79,500 jobs last month, bringing the gains over the past 12 months to nearly 400,000. November’s data posted the most robust job market since the 2008-09 recession as the jobless rate plunged to 5.9% in November, down from 6.3% in October. Average employment growth of 32,500 per month over the last year is the fastest pace since 2007. The 5.9% jobless rate, was only lower for a single month before the recent recession—a time when the economy was operating beyond its longer-run capacity limits.
Employment grew across most industries led by manufacturing, retailing and education. Construction jobs increased for the second consecutive month. The employment increase in November was mainly among private sector employees, as both public sector employment and the number of self-employed was little changed.

The employment gain for November is the 12th straight, the longest since the 14-month span that ended in March 2007.

Some of the most substantial gains were in central Canada, with Quebec’s unemployment rate falling to 5.4%, the lowest level on record back to 1976, and Ontario’s at the lowest level since 2000 at 5.5% (see table below). The national jobless rate of 5.9% has fallen 0.9 percentage points over the past 12 months.

Great news for the consumer was the 2.8% November increase in average hourly earnings, up from 2.4% in October and the fastest rise since April 2016. Much of that increase has come in the last few months as wage growth accelerated sharply—finally a bit of evidence that tight labour market conditions are feeding through to wages. If that trend holds up, it will be hard for the Bank of Canada to remain on the sidelines much longer.

One piece of contrary evidence was a sizeable drop in average hours worked that retraced much of the gain seen in recent months. The Bank of Canada has flagged below-trend hours worked as a sign of labour market slack, but other indicators point to very tight job market conditions. The strength of the job market will no doubt impact the Bank of Canada’s assessment. The Canadian dollar surged on today’s news.

Q3 GDP Growth Slowed

The strong jobs market has been reflected in the rise in consumer spending, noted in another report released today by Stats Canada, helping to offset the slowdown in exports and housing. GDP growth in the third quarter slowed to 1.7%, down sharply from the 4.3% gain in the prior three months. This slowdown was expected as the Q2 pace of expansion was unsustainable. The Bank of Canada estimates that the longer-term potential growth rate is close to 1.7%.

GDP growth in Q3 continued to be concentrated in household spending with a stronger-than-expected 4.0% increase that built onto a 5.0% surge in Q2. Government investment spending also jumped higher, though, and business investment rose for a third straight quarter — albeit at a more modest pace than over the first half of the year. Offset came from a large, but expected, pullback in net trade.

Exports fell sharply in the third quarter subtracting 3.4 percentage points from the growth rate. The decline was mainly attributable to motor vehicles and parts (-9.0%), primarily passenger cars and light trucks. Imports were virtually unchanged.

Household spending represents a record proportion of the overall economy (see chart below). The compensation of employees increased 1.3% in nominal terms in the third quarter, a quicker pace than in the previous 11 quarters. Wages and salaries rose 1.9% in goods-producing industries and 1.1% in services-producing industries. Regionally, Ontario and Quebec continued to fuel wage growth in the third quarter.

Housing investment weakened, posting the first back-to-back quarterly decline in investment in residential structures since the first quarter of 2013. Ownership transfer costs, which reflect activity in the resale housing market fell sharply for the second consecutive quarter.

Monthly GDP data, also released this morning, were perhaps more encouraging than the quarterly data regarding near-term growth implications. September GDP rose a stronger-than-expected 0.2% (nonannualized) to more-than-retrace a 0.1% dip in August. That left somewhat stronger momentum at the end of the quarter than we previously assumed. The data are still pointing to a slowing in underlying GDP growth from the outsized pace from mid-2016 to mid-2017 but is also still fully consistent with the Bank of Canada’s view that growth will be sustained at a modestly above-trend 2% pace going forward.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres