5 THINGS NOT TO DO BEFORE CLOSING ON YOUR NEW HOME

1. Change your job.  You were qualified for your mortgage financing based on your income, years at the job and the understanding that you were there for a while. Changing jobs should be put off until after possession day.
2 – Changing your name. Make sure that your identification and your name match. Do not change from John Smith to J. Michael Smith during this critical time.
3- Make any large purchases. Put off buying new furniture for your future home or a new car. The debt ratios were calculated based on your present debt obligations. It can also be bad to pay off any existing accounts. Some lenders want you to have some cash in the bank for a rainy day. They may have given you an approval with this in mind.

4- Switch banks or move money to a different institution. This may not sound like much but a paper trail to show your down payment source and the automatic withdrawal forms for your mortgage payments are all set up. You can change them after the house sale closes.
5 – Don’t miss any payments on credit cards or loans you already have. Lenders often pull another credit report a few days before closing. If you’ve missed a payment on your Visa card, it could mess up your home purchase big time.
Finally, check with your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional if you are unclear about anything between the time when you receive your approval and possession day.

DAVID COOKE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professiona

CORPORATIONS AND MORTGAGES

For self employed clients, incorporation is a popular business structure we tend to encounter. Having a corporate structure to your business allows for effective separation between the individual and the business.

If you own your business and have it set up as a corporation, that corporation is essentially its own person. They have their own income through business revenue and have their own expenses required to carry out that business- marketing costs, material costs, office space, things of that nature.

When a corporation files taxes, they pay a lower tax rate than the personal income tax rate and only pay taxes on the net business income. The reason an individual might do this is because they do not need every dollar they earn to maintain their lifestyle. For example, if a corporation earns $150,000 and has expenses of $50,000 they pay taxes on $100,000 at the small business tax rate. If they only need to pay themselves $50,000 to maintain their lifestyle, they only pay personal income tax on the $50,000, the other $50,000 remains inside the corporation as retained earnings. If a sole proprietor earns $150,000 and has expenses of $50,000, they pay the personal income tax rate on $100,000, regardless of how much of that $100,000 they actually need.

When it comes to qualifying for a mortgage, a lender can look at the business income or the personal income they pay themselves. Adding the net business income or the personal income from year 1 and year 2 and dividing it by two is the income a lender will associate with that borrower. Keep in mind though this will also be affected if there is more than one shareholder. To find out how your income would be viewed by a lender if you have your business set up as a corporation, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.

RYAN OAKE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

CMHC CHANGES WILL HARM, NOT HELP, THE REAL ESTATE MARKET

A new program the federal government has announced to subsidize first-time homebuyers isn’t likely to help the market but more likely to harm it.

And not only is it not going to help out the market, but it’s not going to help out new homeowners.

In its recently announced budget, the government is essentially putting the weight of turning around the market on the backs of people just entering the housing market.

Part of the problem with the plan is that we only know what’s happening on the front end. People buying their first home will be eligible for a 5% top up from the from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) to the total cost of a home. That amount increases to 10% for new constructions. To qualify, a household must have a combined income of less than $120,000, and the CMHC will only pick up a maximum of $480,000.

In exchange for this, the housing corporation gets an equity share in your home.

While we know what the government will give new homebuyers, we don’t know what it’s going to cost them down the road. Believe it or not, there’s been no announcement on what interest rates will be offered on the loans, nor what the terms of repayment would be. Complete costing isn’t expected until at least the fall, likely after the federal election.

But the real problem at the heart of this is the measures won’t do anything to help the affordability of homes. It’s not going to decrease the price of housing, and it’s just going to put the burden of propping up the market on the backs of new entrants.

In RBC’s most recent housing affordability report, released in March, the bank said a softer housing market was making houses slightly more affordable, as their national affordability index dropped 0.7 percentage points to 51.9%. (The lower the score, the more affordable homes are.)

“The fourth-quarter relief barely made a dent in Vancouver and Toronto where affordability remains at crisis levels. Owning a home in both of these markets, as well as in Victoria and increasingly Montreal, is a huge stretch for ordinary buyers,” RBC said in a press release.

In Montreal, the bank’s score is 44.5%, and RBC said the situation is not critical just yet.

“Housing affordability is eroding gradually to levels that could potentially pinch buyers—though so far they haven’t shown any sign of balking,” they said.

But with this new CMHC policy, that gradual erosion is likely to turn critical when this new wave of homebuyers crashes into the market.

One of the potential risks with this scenario is called overhang. Essentially, because a new policy has been announced, but hasn’t come into force yet, many Canadians who are likely to qualify are going to decide to put off their purchases. For now, un-bought supply will build up. But as soon as this policy goes into effect, these first-time buyers are going to suck up huge swathes of the housing market, and prices are going to skyrocket.

The new federal program is designed to lower the monthly mortgage payments of new homeowners by what amounts to a few hundred dollars a month. That can make a huge difference in the budget of a young family, but to do this, the government is putting their hands in the pockets of new homeowners for an unspecified amount, while at the same time risking further unaffordability in the housing market.

They could have had the same effect—lowering monthly payments—by re-introducing 30-year amortizations. Instead, they’ve kept the limit for CMHC-insured mortgages set to 25 years.

The shorter amortizations coupled with the continuation of the strict stress-testing rules, covered extensively in recent North East Mortgages blog posts, puts pressure on people on the lower end of the market. The stress test makes sure you can’t just handle the rate you’re signing on for, but makes sure you can handle an additional 2 percentage on top of it.

The rules the government has passed in the last few years have made it more difficult for new buyers and established buyers alike. They’ve also made it hard for people to refinance their more toxic debt, putting them into situations far riskier than the relative rarity of mortgage default.

Adjusting those rules would have a wider effect and give more people the step up they need to enter the housing market.

If the government really wanted to help with the affordability of homes, they have plenty of better options. This narrow measure is going to end up causing more harm than good.

TERRY KILAKOS

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

WHAT’S YOUR BEST RATE?

You know at one time I could give you a quote over the phone and not worry that I would be too far out. Today is a totally different story, here are some of the variables that come into play.

1. What’s your credit score? A 700 FICO score is the new 650 for many lenders as their investors demand better quality borrowers.
2. Where is the property located? Rural areas are getting harder to finance.
3. Is it an insured file, are you putting less than 20% down payment?
4. Is it insurable? Are you putting down more than 20% on the purchase but it can qualify under the stress test, currently 5.34%?
5. Is the loan to value going to be 65% or less? You get the same rate as the guy with 5% down and have to qualify with the same criteria.
6. Are you looking to refinance or buy a rental? Sorry both are uninsurable and have to qualify at 5.34% but you have to pay a higher interest rate.
7. So how about your employment; have you been on your job or at least in the same industry for the last 2 or more years?
8. Down payment requires a 90-day statement of where it has been kept, please be sure that it was in a bank as anything else seems to be picked to death. Larger gifts lately have required the giftor to show the money was in their account. God forbid they should have won it at a casino as they will want the print out from the cage boss, especially in B.C.
9. How fast is your deal closing, as there are quick close rates usually for insured deals.
10. While supposedly everyone is to be able to qualify at 44%TDS and 39% GDS, it’s not always the case as CMHC is still in some instances lower than a 680 FICO score and is wanting the client to be qualified at the old standard of 42% and 35%, which again cuts back the qualifying amounts.

As you can see what’s your best rate has a lot of things come into play today and anyone who gives you a rate over the phone has hopefully asked you at least some of these questions. The best rate today is more about what fits your situation but the old adage of who, what, where and how still apply. Once we have asked the questions, we have to audit the answers to make sure it’s the best fit for your situation. If you have any questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.

LEN LANE

Dominion Lending Centres – Mortgage Professional

HOW TO PICK THE BEST MORTGAGE FOR YOUR SITUATION!

Most Canadians are conditioned to think that the lowest interest rate means the best mortgage product. Although sometimes that is true, a mortgage is much more than just an interest rate. You can save yourself a lot of money if you pay attention to the fine print for the total cost of your mortgage.

In order to pick the best mortgage, you need to understand your options. This comes with mortgage intelligence, understanding how mortgages work and the pros and cons of the various options.
Once you’ve selected the type of mortgage, then you’ll need to shop for the most competitive option available to you and that means making some decisions based on your specific situation including:

• Are you planning to move in the next 5 years
• Will your family be growing/shrinking?
• Will your employment change and if it does will you need to relocate?
• Would thousands of dollars in penalties impact you if you need to break your mortgage?
• What types of debts do you have? Credit cards? Car loan? Student loan? Line of Credit?

Why do all this work? Because it will have a direct impact on your bottom line. A mortgage is made up of two parts—the principal and interest—you need to pay attention to how and when these parts get paid down. Ideally, you want to minimize your interest payments and maximize the principal payments.

New Government Stress Test Jan. 1, 2018 – whichever is the highest is how you must qualify for a mortgage.
• Qualify at the Chartered Bank Benchmark Rate (Government Rate) which fluctuates (currently 5.34%)
• OR the contract rate your lender gives you PLUS 2% i.e. 3.69% + 2% = 5.69%
• Since 5.69% is the highest – that would be the stress tested rate.
What this means to you is… if you have to qualify for a mortgage at a rate about 2% higher than the lender is giving you, your buying power decreases by about 20%.
To pick the best formula for your situation, you’ll first need to understand some of the factors that impact how much interest you’ll pay for your mortgage loan.

Understanding these 6 mortgage terms will help you make the best decision for your situation

Amortization

Amortization is a fancy word that means the “life of your mortgage” OR how long it takes to pay off your mortgage if you paid your mortgage for “X” years. The amount of your mortgage loan repayment is calculated based on a length of time you agree to pay off that debt. In Canada, the standard amortization period is 25 years.

• For a 30-year amortization you need a 20% or higher down payment
Picking the best mortgage is not just about qualifying for the mortgage. The amortization period is integral in the best mortgage decision because it will decide how much or how little interest you will pay during the life of the mortgage loan.
• The longer the amortization period (25 years vs 30 years) the more interest you will pay.
• Therefore, a shorter amortization period will lower your overall cost of borrowing BUT you must be able to afford the higher payments.
Once you’ve decided on your amortization, you will need to decide how frequently you would like to make your mortgage payments. Every mortgage payment (consisting of both interest and principal) will help reduce your principal (the amount of money you borrowed) and eventually reduces the overall interest you pay on this loan.
• Monthly, bi-monthly, accelerated bi-weekly or weekly mortgage payments.

Term

In the 1980’s mortgage interest rates were as high as 22%. Interest rates can change over time therefore, lenders don’t want to negotiate a 25-year loan at 4% interest if the interest rates go up to 10% in 5 years. To avoid the risk, lenders break your mortgage amortization into smaller terms.

• The term is shorter than the amortization period and locks you into your pre-negotiated rates during that time.
• The length of term you choose (most Canadians choose 5 years) will depend partly on if you think interest rates will rise or fall. Typical terms are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 & 10.

About 3-6 months before your current term matures, your current lender usually sends you a renewal notice with options on rates for the various terms they offer (typically 1 to 10 years).
Once you get your renewal notice, you need to contact your mortgage broker to ensure you’re choosing the best option for your situation.

Closed Mortgage

A closed mortgage usually offers the lowest interest rates available.
Closed mortgages cannot be paid off before the end of its term without triggering a penalty. Some lenders allow for a partial prepayment of a closed mortgage by increasing the mortgage payment or a lump sum prepayment.

• If you try and “break your mortgage” or if any prepayments are made above the stipulated allowance the lender allows, a penalty will be charged.

Open Mortgage
An open mortgage is a more flexible mortgage that allows you to pay off your mortgage in part or in full before the end of its term without penalty, because of the flexibility the interest rates are higher.

• The interest rates for an open mortgage are typically 3-4% higher than a closed rate mortgage.
• i.e. a home buyer could pay 6.99% for a 5-year open mortgage vs. 3.99% for a five-year closed mortgage.
If you plan to sell your home soon or expect a large sum of money, an open mortgage can be a great option. Most lenders will allow you to convert from an open to a closed mortgage at any time (and switch you to lower rates).
Fixed mortgage – you have the same payment for the term of the mortgage

Variable mortgage – the mortgage rate and your monthly payments will vary depending on the Bank of Canada rate (Prime)

Fixed rate:
• Pro – you would have the same mortgage payment for the entire term of the mortgage
• Your mortgage payments are not affected by Bank of Canada Rate or Canadian Bond Yield
• Think of fixed rate as an insurance policy – you pay a premium to guarantee “fixed” rates for the balance of the term

• Pro – can port a fixed mortgage
• Con – higher interest rates
• Con – MUCH higher penalties if you need to break your mortgage (can be 4-5% of outstanding balance with Banks/Credit Unions)
• 60% of home owners, break their mortgage before it matures!
• Conclusions: How much does it cost to break a mortgage?

Variable rate:
• Pro – lower rates than the Fixed Rate – you would pay less now that you would for a Fixed Rate mortgage
• Pro – Penalty for breaking is 3 months interest (about 0.5-1% of outstanding balance).
• Pro – you can lock into a fixed rate mortgage (assuming your mortgage is in good standing) at any time, based on the amount of time remaining on your mortgage and the current posted rates.
• i.e. If you have a 5-year variable mortgage and you want to move to Fixed after 2 years, you would lock into the lenders current 3 year fixed posted rate
• Con – Cannot port a variable mortgage
• Con – Mortgage payments will increase/decrease based on the Bank of Canada rate – currently 1.75% and the lenders prime rate = Prime is currently 3.95%
• Bank of Canada meets 8 times a year
• Every 0.25% increase with the lender Prime rate will cost you an extra $13/$100,000 borrowed. i.e. $300K mortgage = will be about $39/month more/less

The best way to decide on the best mortgage is to contact your friendly neighbourhood Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker. Mortgages are complicated, but they don’t have to be… Engage an expert!

KELLY HUDSON

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR CREDIT SCORE

When applying for any sort of loan, one of the most important metrics a lender is going to look at is your credit score.

But what really is a credit score, who keeps track of it, and most importantly, how can you improve yours?

There are a few simple ways to keep your credit score in good shape.

First off, prioritize paying your bills on time. Missing payments on your credit cards, lines of credit and so on, can have a very negative impact on your score.

You can spend an entire lifetime building up for good credit. All it takes is one mistake to negatively impact you.”
Second, try to keep your credit cards at no more than 65% of their limit. This is the sweet spot that credit scorers are looking for.

Thirdly, you should avoid the “free credit score” services out there because they’re just looking to sell you credit, or sell your information to someone who does.

When you’re looking for credit, what they’re going to ask you is, ‘What are you looking for credit for?’ And you’re going to say, ‘Well, I’m looking to get a mortgage, or I’m looking to get a car loan.’ And then what they’re going to do is they’re going to sell your information to banks and mortgage brokers and people out there who are able to supply you with credit.

Instead, what you should do is go directly to the credit scoring companies. They’re required by law to give you your credit information directly, without affecting your score. TransUnion offers an online form, found here. Equifax has multiple types of credit reports you can order here.

You also want to try to limit the number of credit inquiries by different lenders. When you’re shopping around at different banks, the number of inquiries can add up as each bank makes an inquiry to see what they can offer you.

But as a mortgage broker, we have access to multiple lenders all at once.

You could effectively come see a mortgage broker, get one inquiry done, and that inquiry is good for 20 financial institutions, As opposed to having to go directly to every bank. If you have any questions, contact your local Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.

TERRY KILAKOS

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

ACCESSING YOUR HOME’S EQUITY TO INVEST

To tap into your home’s equity, it all starts with refinancing your home. If you own a home, the equity you have built up in it is one of the most valuable assets you have available to you. It is also much more accessible than taking out a large loan. In many cases, home equity loans and lines of credit can offer you a lower interest rate as compared to other types of loans while providing you with access to credit for investment purposes. You can view an excellent comparison of loans here.

Often times we see clients who refinance in order to:
• Renovate their home
• Purchase a secondary property for investment purposes
• Debt consolidation
• Business Development
• Assisting their children’s post secondary education
• Financing thru a “life event” such as illness

In this particular article, we are going to highlight the value of utilizing your home’s equity to reinvest in other investments such as:
• rental properties
• stocks
• bonds
• mutual funds
• RRSP’s
• RESP’s
The first question that people ask is how much can I borrow? Generally speaking, you can borrow up to 80% of the appraised value of your house. For example, if your home value of $650,000 assuming one qualifies, they can access up to 80% of $650,000 which would be $520,000, if their current mortgage is $450,000 they may be able to get a home equity line of credit for $70,000 (totaling $520,000)

Working with your mortgage broker, you can go through the refinance and approval process if this is something you are interested in accessing. It is always a good idea to consult with your broker and understand the personality of your mortgage—there may be limitations of how much equity you can access and the conditions relating to the refinancing. There are also potential costs associated with this type of refinance including:
• Penalties to break your mortgage
• appraisal fees
• title search
• title insurance
• legal costs
Keep in mind that these potential costs can be rolled within your new loan amount and will not be “out of pocket.”
Now, if you have been approved and are utilizing your home equity for one of the above investments (after speaking to your financial planner/advisor first) and can expect to see a higher rate of return than the interest you are paying to borrow the money, then it is worth considering. We emphasize that you should always proceed with caution and get advice from sound professionals before choosing to invest your hard-earned money.

We have found that this type of investing works extremely well for many and is a safer and less risky way to access funds for further investment purposes. We recognize that this option may not be suitable or comfortable for some, but it is a viable way to capitalize on the equity sitting in your home and make it work for you! If you have questions or are interested in learning more, please do not hesitate to contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage professional near you.

GEOFF LEE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional

BANK OF CANADA REDUCES PROSPECTS OF A RATE HIKE

A greater-than-expected slowdown in global economic activity has triggered a slowdown in the pace of interest rate normalization by many central banks. In response to these central bank policy changes and perceived progress in U.S.-China trade talks, global financial conditions and stock market sentiment have improved, pushing up oil and other commodity prices.

Oil prices have risen since January in response to improved market sentiment, a greater-than-expected output cut in Saudi Arabia and risks of falling production in Iran, Venezuela and Libya. In its projection, the Bank assumes that the prices of Brent and WTI oil will remain close to their recent average levels. Uncertainty around the future path for global oil prices, however, remains elevated. The most important considerations relate to OPEC policy and geopolitical risks to production. As well, U.S. shale output could increase at a faster pace than expected.

In Canada, growth during the first half of 2019 is now expected to be slower than was anticipated in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In another very dovish statement, the Bank of Canada acknowledged this morning that the slowdown in the Canadian economy has been more profound and more broadly based than it had expected earlier this year. The Bank had forecast weak exports and investment in the energy sector and a decline in consumer spending in the oil-producing provinces. However, as indicated by the mere 0.1% quarterly growth in GDP in the fourth quarter, the deceleration in activity was far more troubling. Investment and exports outside the energy sector have been negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty and the global slowdown. Weaker-than-anticipated housing and consumption also contributed to the downturn.

As was unanimously expected, the Bank maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1-3/4% for the fourth consecutive time. As well, the Bank dropped any reference to future rate hikes, bringing its policy in line with the Federal Reserve and other major industrial central banks.

“The Bank expects growth to pick up, starting in the second quarter of this year. Housing activity is expected to stabilize given continued population gains, the fading effects of past housing policy changes, and improved global financial conditions. Consumption will be underpinned by strong growth in employment income. Outside of the oil and gas sector, investment will be supported by high rates of capacity utilization and exports will expand with strengthening global demand. Meanwhile, the contribution to growth from government spending has been revised down in light of Ontario’s new budget.”

Overall, the Bank projects real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2019 and around 2% in 2020 and 2021. This forecast implies a modest widening of the output gap, which will be absorbed over the projection period. Inflation is close to the 2% central bank target.

The central bank clearly stated that given all of these economic conditions, an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted. The policy statement added that the Governing Council “will continue to evaluate the appropriate degree of monetary policy accommodation as new data arrive. In particular, we are monitoring developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy to gauge the extent to which the factors weighing on growth and the inflation outlook are dissipating”.

Bottom Line: The Bank of Canada has revised down its estimate of the neutral nominal policy rate. The neutral rate is defined as the sum of two components: i) the real rate that is consistent with output at its noninflationary potential level, and ii) 2% to account for the target inflation rate. The Bank now estimates the neutral rate to be about a quarter percentage point lower than assessed in April of last year, in a range of 2.25% to 3.25%. The midpoint of the range for potential output growth is now estimated to be slightly lower than in the April 2018 MPR, at 1.8% on average between 2019 and 2021 and at 1.9% in 2011. It is likely that these reassessments are consistent with unchanged policy interest rates for the remainder of this year.

Housing Market Details in the April Monetary Policy Report

While housing is expected to stabilize at the national level, the Bank is aware of the risks to the outlook, particularly in the Greater Vancouver Area. For instance, the effects on growth of the revised B-20 guideline are expected to dissipate in many markets, although they could persist longer in areas with high house prices and that have been subject to other changes to housing policies. The stabilization of expectations for house prices in British Columbia and Ontario may indicate a forthcoming stabilization and subsequent increase in resale activity (see Chart 13 below).

The changes to local and provincial policies to address speculation, combined with the B-20 revisions, are having more pronounced effects in the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA) than in the Greater Toronto Area. Thus, while stabilization of activity is expected this year in the base-case projection, there is a risk that it could be delayed in the GVA.

Meanwhile, ongoing challenges in the oil industry are expected to continue to weigh on the Alberta housing market. In contrast, a strong economy and investor interest are expected to boost the market in Montréal.

The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive introduced in the 2019 federal budget is expected to support housing demand and may also lead to improving sentiment in the housing market. However, delays in purchases by homebuyers who want to take advantage of the new measure could influence the timing of resale activity in 2019.

After declining for two years, residential investment is expected to expand modestly in 2020 and 2021. Given the trend reduction in housing affordability, construction of multi-unit residences is expected to resume its trend increase to meet demand for less-expensive homes.

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

MARCH HOME SALES REBOUND FROM DISMAL FEBRUARY SHOWING

Statistics released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales edged higher in March following the sharp decline in storm-struck February. Overall, however, housing activity remains considerably below historical norms.

Home sales rose 0.9% nationally while the benchmark price rose 0.8%. While this is an improvement from the very poor showing in February, both sales and prices were down from a year earlier as homebuyers grapple with stricter mortgage rules and provincial actions, especially in British Columbia, to slow the housing market.

There was an even split between the number of markets where sales rose from the previous month and those where they fell. Among Canada’s larger cities, activity improved in Victoria, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Oakville-Milton and Ottawa, whereas it declined in Greater Vancouver, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, London and St. Thomas, Sudbury and Quebec City.

On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, sales fell 4.6% nationally to its weakest level for the month since 2013. Existing home sales were also almost 12% below their 10-year average for the month of March (see chart below). Notably, home sales in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan were more than a whopping 20% below their 10-year average for the month. The slump is getting deeper in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. All three markets saw further sales and price declines in March. Demand-supply conditions in Vancouver are now the weakest since the 2008-09 recession. By contrast, activity is running well-above average in Quebec and New Brunswick.

There was a slight pick-up in Toronto, yet the 1.8% sales gain recorded last month reversed just a fraction of the outsized 9.0% drop in weather-weakened February. A sixth consecutive decline in new listings in Toronto might have been a restraining factor.

Activity rebounded in Ottawa, while it was flat in Montreal. Both markets, along with Halifax, still boast the tightest demand-supply conditions in Canada. Benchmark prices there continue to track higher at solid rates.

“It will be some time before policy measures announced in the recent Federal Budget designed to help first-time homebuyers take effect,” said Jason Stephen, CREA’s President. “In the meantime, many prospective homebuyers remain sidelined by the mortgage stress-test to varying degrees depending on where they are looking to buy.”

“March results suggest local market trends are largely in a holding pattern,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “While the mortgage stress test has made access to home financing more challenging, the good news is that continuing job growth remains supportive for housing demand and should eventually translate into stronger home sales activity pending a reduction in household indebtedness,” he added.

New Listings
The number of newly listed homes rose 2.1% in March. New supply rose in about two-thirds of all local markets, led by Winnipeg, Regina, Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island. By contrast, new listings declined in the GTA, Ottawa and Halifax-Dartmouth.

With new listings having improved more than sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 54.2% from 54.9% in February. This measure of market balance has largely remained close to its long-term average of 53.5% since early 2018.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in March 2019.

There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March 2019, in line with the February reading and one of the highest levels for the measure in the last three-and-a-half years. Still, it is only slightly above its long-term average of 5.3 months.

Housing market balance varies significantly by region. The number of months of inventory has swollen far above its long-term average in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador; as a result, homebuyers there have an ample choice of listings available for purchase. By contrast, the measure remains well below its long-term average in Ontario and the Maritime provinces.

Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) declined by 0.5% y/y in March 2019. It last posted a y/y decline of similar magnitude in September 2009.

Among benchmark property categories tracked by the index, condo apartment units were the only one to post a y/y price gain in March 2019 (+1.1%), while townhouse/row unit prices were little changed from March 2018 (-0.2%). By comparison, one and two-storey single-family home prices were down by 1.8% and 0.8% y/y respectively.

Trends continue to vary widely among the 18 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results remain mixed in British Columbia, with prices down on a y/y basis in Greater Vancouver (-7.7%) and the Fraser Valley (-3.9%). Prices also dipped slightly below year-ago levels in the Okanagan Valley (-0.8%). By contrast, prices rose by 1% in Victoria and by 6.4% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+6.6%), the Niagara Region (+6.0%), Hamilton-Burlington (+3.7%) the GTA (+2.6%) and Oakville-Milton (+2.3%). By contrast, home prices in Barrie and District held below year-ago levels (-6.1%).

Across the Prairies, supply remains historically elevated relative to sales and home prices remain below year-ago levels. Benchmark prices were down by 4.9% in Calgary, 4.4% in Edmonton, 4.6% in Regina and 2.7% in Saskatoon. The home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until demand and supply become more balanced.

Home prices rose 7.6% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 10.4% increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6.3% in Greater Montreal (led by an 8.1% increase in apartment unit prices) and 2.1% in Greater Moncton (led by a 12.9% increase in apartment unit prices). (Table below).

Bottom Line:

The absence of a sharp snapback in activity at the beginning of the all-important spring season in March clearly points to the mortgage stress test, market-cooling measures in BC, economic uncertainty in Alberta and stretched affordability as continuing to exert significant restraint on homebuyer demand. The bad weather’s effect on February sales may have been limited after all. This means that the spring season may not have much upside to offer this year. In coming months, the recent declines in mortgage rates should ease the stress test for some buyers and we will see if first-time home buyers decide to put their plans on hold until more details on the federal government’s First-Time Home Buyer Incentive become available.

It has become increasingly apparent that the taxes levied in Vancouver targetting foreign buyers, empty homes, and high-end properties have sent Vancouver’s luxury housing market reeling. Prices in West Vancouver, one of Canada’s richest neighbourhoods, are down 17% from their 2016 peak. The slowdown is broadening: home sales in March were the weakest since the financial crisis as the benchmark prices fell 8.5% from their record last June. Bloomberg News published the following story today:

“It’s become more costly to both buy and own expensive homes (in Vancouver), particularly for non-resident investors and foreigners. To get a sense of the impact from the municipal, provincial and federal measures, take as a hypothetical example, the province’s most valuable property: the C$73.12 million ($55 million) house belonging to Vancouver-based Lululemon Athletica Inc. founder Chip Wilson. A foreign purchaser of the home who leaves the property empty for much of the year would end up paying as much as C$20.8 million in taxes as follows:

Taxes on purchase:

• Foreign buyers’ tax of 20%: C$14.6 million surcharge on top of the sales price
• Property transfer tax rate climbs to 5% on most expensive homes: C$3.7 million

Ownership taxes:

• Municipal vacancy tax of 1% on assessed value: C$731,200 a year
• Provincial speculation and vacancy tax, 2% of assessed value: C$1.46 million a year
• Provincial luxury home tax known as the additional school tax of 0.2% to 0.4% of assessed value: C$278,480 a year

Additional government moves:

Federal rules tightening mortgage lending made it harder to obtain larger mortgages and harder for foreign buyers to borrow
Proposed legislation will expose anonymous Vancouver property owners in a public registry to stymie tax evasion, fraud and money laundering.”

It is not surprising, therefore, that Asian investment–a stalwart part of the Vancouver real estate market for decades–has dropped sharply. “Chinese investors are retreating globally following government restrictions on capital outflows in 2016. In Vancouver, Asian investment dropped off even more last year due in part to a series of new taxes instituted by the government, including a speculation and wealth tax on homes. The province has also proposed a bill to expose hidden landowners — both residential and commercial — and failure to disclose may result in a fine of C$100,000 or 15% of the property’s assessed value, whichever is greater. This is apparently already driving away some investors.” Bloomberg News has reported that at least some Chinese money is being diverted from the Vancouver market to Toronto as shown in the following Bloomberg chart.

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

SPRING IS HERE, MAKE SURE YOU’RE COVERED BY FLOOD INSURANCE

The sun is coming out, and the snow is disappearing. You know what that means: it’s flood season.

And because flood season is upon us, it’s time to make sure you’re covered.

What you need to do is ask specific questions. When you call your insurance company, you should say ‘I want to know, do I have flood insurance, yes or no?’ And if the answer is yes, then ask ‘To what am I covered? How much am I covered?

It’s also important for you to ask for details on what is covered by your insurance plan. Things like whether acts of God or sewer backups are covered are important to know. Otherwise, you’re going to end up in a situation where a flood—knock on wood—and you’re not going to be covered.

There are also online resources that can give you an idea not just of what to do if there’s a flood, but where in your area may be prone to flooding.
You can look at provincial government websites, there’s a whole bunch of different places where you can go and get information about flood zones, and what you can do, and how to better prepare yourself and get yourself educated.
These government website often also offers advice on what to do to prepare yourself for flooding, as well as what to do once a flood has arrived.

We do more than just mortgages. We have a team that gets you from start to finish when purchasing your home—and this includes insurance. Contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker near you if you have any questions!

TERRY KILAKOS

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional