DLC BLOG
7 Tips for Buying Your First Home

As a licensed Mortgage Broker, I am often asked “what do I need to know when buying my first home?”

Everyone has their own aims and objects when buying their first home. As a Mortgage Broker, I specialize in making sure your financing is in order to facilitate your dreams of owning a home.

Buying your first home is very exciting, but it can easily be overwhelming. Being prepared is the first step. The decision to purchase your first home can be a huge, life-changing event and you need to know exactly what you are getting into.

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Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Poloz Rate Hike Had A Hawkish Tone

As was universally expected, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council hiked overnight rates this morning by 25 basis points taking the benchmark yield to 1-3/4%. This marked the fifth rate increase since the current tightening phase began in July 2017 (see chart below). The central bank stated it would return the overnight rate to a neutral stance, dropping the word ‘gradually’ that was used to describe the upward progression in yields since this process began. Market watchers will certainly note this omission. For the first time in years, the Bank has acknowledged it expects to remove monetary stimulus from the economy entirely.

So what is the neutral overnight rate? According to today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), “the neutral nominal policy rate is defined as the real rate consistent with output sustainably at its potential level and inflation equal to target, on an ongoing basis, plus 2% for the inflation target. It is a medium- to long-term equilibrium concept.” For Canada, the neutral rate is estimated to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, which implies that at a minimum, three more 25 basis point rate hikes are likely over the next year or so.

The Bank of Canada emphasized that the global economic outlook remains solid and that the U.S. economy is particularly robust, but is expected to moderate as U.S.-China trade tensions weigh on growth and commodity prices. The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) eliminated a good deal of uncertainty for Canadian exports, which will reignite business confidence and investment. Business investment and exports have been of concern in recent quarters, and the Bank is now looking towards a resurgence in these sectors, augmented by the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia.

A continuing concern, however, is the decline in Canadian oil prices. Western Canada Select (WCS), a local blend that represents about half of Canada’s crude oil exports, has declined about 60% since July as global oil prices have risen (see chart below). WCS plunged below US$20 a barrel last week posting the biggest discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on record in Bloomberg data back to 2008. WCS generally tracks heavy oil from Canada, which typically trades at a discount to WTI because of quality issues as well as the cost of transport from Alberta to the refineries in the U.S.

Canadian pipelines are already filled to the brim. The inability of the Canadian oil industry to build a major pipeline from Alberta to either the U.S. or the Pacific Ocean is increasingly dragging down domestic oil prices. Oil-by-rail shipments to the U.S. are at an all-time high, but this is an expensive and potentially unsafe option and precludes Canadian oil exports to China and Japan.

An even broader concern is the impact of higher interest rates on debt-laden consumers. The Bank is well aware of the risks, as the MPR cited that “consumption is projected to grow at a healthy pace, although the pace of spending gradually slows in response to rising interest rates… Higher mortgage rates and the changes to mortgage guidelines are affecting the dynamics of housing activity. Housing resales responded quickly to the new mortgage guidelines, and the level of resale activity is expected to continue on a lower trajectory than before the changes. New home construction is shifting toward smaller units, although stronger population growth is estimated to raise fundamental demand for housing.”

Household credit growth has slowed, and the share of new mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios has fallen. The ratio of household debt to income has levelled off and is expected to edge downward (see chart below).

Low-ratio mortgage originations declined by about 15% in the second quarter of 2018 relative to the same quarter in 2017 (see charts below). The MPR shows that “while activity fell for all categories of borrowers, the drop was more pronounced for those with a loan-to-income ratio above 450%, leading to a decline in the number of new highly indebted households”.

Bottom Line: The Bank of Canada believes the economy will grow about 2% per year in 2018, 2019 and 2020, in line with their upwardly revised estimate of potential growth of 1.9%. The Bank asserts that mortgage tightening measures of the past two years have “reduced household vulnerabilities,” although the “sheer size of the outstanding debt means that vulnerability will persist for some time”. That is Bank of Canada doublespeak. What it means is expect three more rate hikes by the end of next year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

DLC BLOG
Rates On The Rise Both Variable & Fixed

With the Bank of Canada in a mood to raise rates, it’s a similar feeling for the bond market, which impacts fixed rates. In every interest-rate market there are many factors leading to an increase and we are hoping to provide a little bit of clarity on what is happening and what it means to you and your loved ones.

We tell you this in advance to be proactive to take care of you, as our mortgage family, so as you hear the news about the changes you have comfort we are here to lead with clarity.

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DLC BLOG
Are you behind on your CRA taxes?

Nothing weighs heavy on one’s shoulders than owning a home and getting behind on your Canada Revenue taxes. Most banks will not be able to help you refinance your home to pay them off as CRA has first dibs on your house and assets. We have clients owing anywhere from $5,000- $300,000 in back taxes and have threatening letters from CRA that would keep anyone up at night.

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DLC BLOG
7 things every self-employed individual should know — Before you apply for a mortgage

Self-employed individuals are quickly becoming one of the most common clients that we handle. Daily we have successful business owners come into our offices who enjoy the perks of being an entrepreneur. One of these includes fantastic write-offs that allow them to bring their income down to a low tax bracket.

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DLC BLOG
Your HELOC and declining property values
Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) for many years have been a way for Canadians to unlock equity in their homes and use the money for investing, paying for children’s education or quite simply lowering their monthly interest payments on high interest credit cards.

This is all great if the property values remain steady, but if there has been a big upswing in value and the HELOC has been increased, here’s what can happen if the values start to reduce.

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DLC BLOG
Bank or Mortgage Broker?

Mortgages are like vehicles. A bank is similar to the brand, Ford or Toyota for example. How long you have a mortgage before it’s time to renew is like the model, a Fusion or Camry. The rate is similar to the car’s paint color, and the mortgage benefits such as prepayment privileges and portability are like the car’s benefits; 4-wheel drive, hatchback, four doors instead of two, etc.

A bank is like a sales person at a Ford or Toyota dealership. He or she is an expert, they know everything about every car on their lot; engine size, warranty, all available colours, and their fuel ratings. He or she can match any car to your needs and lifestyle, as long as it’s sold at their lot.

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DLC BLOG
Legalized Marijuana and the Canadian Housing Market

October 17th will be an important day in Canada’s social history. It’s the day when we are going to have legalized marijuana across the country.

We will be the second major country in the world to do this. How does this affect mortgage brokers like myself? When someone comes to me to obtain financing for a home purchase and the sellers have disclosed that they smoked pot in the house or grew a few plants , how will this affect their home purchase?

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DLC BLOG
A bride and a mortgage broker – Our House Magazine

Dominion Lending Centres’ leading lady in the new national commercial campaign has a few questions of her own. As a young Canadian looking to get into the housing market, Laura Steponchev has a candid Q&A with one of our pro’s.

You could say Laura Steponchev is a pretty typical Canadian millennial. The aspiring actress moved to Toronto from Regina five years ago to pursue her career. And over the years, she’s moved around quite a bit. Steponchev lived on her own for a while, and loved it, but paying the bills was tough and she needed to be more reasonable. She got a roommate, but he moved in with his fiancé, and she moved out of that condo and into an old house in Greektown with four other roommates. She eventually met her boyfriend, and they soon moved in together. The couple decided they wanted a place of their own, so they moved into his parents’ house in the ‘burbs.
“Living with your partner comes with its own troubles, but living together with your inlaws – that’s a whole new ballgame,” she said.
Steponchev wants to get into the market, but she’s got a lot of questions.

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Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Four-Month Home Sales Gain Ends in September

Canadian home sales declined for the first time in five months led downward by weakening activity in Vancouver and Toronto. Statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales fell by 0.4% from August to September. While housing activity has picked up since the first half of this year, it remains well below the boom levels of 2014 to early-2017.

The September slowdown was reported in just over half of all local markets, led by Vancouver Island and Edmonton, along with several markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Region. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported a 17.3% decrease in sales in Metro Vancouver from August to September, while y/y sales dropped a whopping 43.5%. Last month’s sales in Metro Vancouver were 36.1% below the 10-year September sales average. Newly listed homes have been rising providing more choice for potential buyers. But with tepid demand, home prices in Metro Vancouver are under downward pressure.

Monthly sales gains were most evident in the Fraser Valley and Montreal. The Montreal housing market has been strong for well over a year.

On a year-over-year basis, national sales declined 8.9% last month. About 70% of local markets were down on a y/y basis, let primarily by declines in major urban centres in British Columbia, along with Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg.

As interest rates are rising, the new mortgage stress tests are becoming more restrictive.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes rose 3% between August and September, led by the Lower Mainland and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). More than half of all local markets posted a monthly increase in new listings, which was offset by declines of more than 3% in more than half of the remaining local markets.

With sales down slightly and new listings up, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 54.4% in September compared to 56.2% in July and August. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is 53.4%.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about three-quarters of all local markets were in balanced market territory in September 2018.

There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2018. While this is in line with the measure’s long-term average nationally, the number of months of inventory is well above its long-term average in all Prairie provinces and in Newfoundland & Labrador.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 2.3% y/y in September 2018. The increase was in line with those posted in each of the two previous months. Benchmark home prices fell by 0.26% from August to September (see Table below). Downward price pressure in much of B.C. continues.

Following a well-established pattern, condo apartment units posted the most substantial y/y price gains in September (+8.4%), followed by townhouse/row units (+4.5%). Meanwhile, one-storey and two-storey single-family home prices were little changed on a y/y basis in September (-0.3% and -0.3% respectively).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. In British Columbia, home price gains are diminishing on a y/y basis in the Lower Mainland (Greater Vancouver (GVA): +2.2%; Fraser Valley: +8.5%). Meanwhile, prices in Victoria were up 8.7% y/y in September. Elsewhere on Vancouver Island, they climbed 13.2%.

Among the housing markets in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region that are tracked by the index, home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+8%), Hamilton-Burlington (+6.1%), the Niagara Region (+5.9%), the GTA (+2%), and Oakville-Milton (+1.4%). By contrast, home prices slipped lower in Barrie and District (-3.6%).

Across the Prairies, benchmark home prices remained below year-ago levels in Calgary (-2.6%), Edmonton (-2.6%), Regina (-4.7%) and Saskatoon (-1.9%).

Home prices rose by 6.9% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 7.9% increase in two-storey single-family home prices), by 6.1% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 7% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and by 3.4% in Greater Moncton (led by a 10.3% increase in apartment unit prices).

Bottom Line

Housing markets continue to adjust to regulatory and government tightening as well as to higher mortgage rates. The speculative frenzy has cooled, and multiple bidding situations are no longer commonplace in Toronto and surrounding areas. The housing markets in the GGH appear to have bottomed, and supply constraints may well stem the decline in home prices in coming months. The slowdown in housing markets in the Lower Mainland of B.C. accelerated last month as the sector continues to reverberate from provincial actions to dampen activity, as well as the broader regulatory changes and higher interest rates.

The cost of owning a home in Canada is at its highest level in 28 years and likely to get only more expensive as interest rates continue to rise (see chart below). Homeownership costs, including a mortgage, property taxes and utilities, took up 54% of a typical household’s pre-tax income in the second quarter, according to the Royal Bank, compared to 43% three years ago.

While rising prices was the culprit behind the loss of affordability between 2015 and 2017, mortgage-rate increases accounted for the entire rise in carrying costs over the past year. The country’s central bank has hiked interest rates four times since July 2017 which has filtered through to higher borrowing costs for homeowners.

I expect the Bank of Canada to proceed with further rate hikes taking the overnight rate up from 1.5% to 2.25% in the first half of 2019. This will keep upward pressure on mortgage rates and increase the cost of homeownership even more across Canada.

Higher housing costs cannot be blamed on speculators. Recent analysis by Bloomberg using Teranet Inc.’s land and housing registry shows that condo flipping was never pervasive in the Vancouver and Toronto housing booms and that condo-flipping has diminished since late 2016. This suggests that stricter measures to curb speculators will not make those cities more affordable.

Rents Rising in GTA

Recent data have also shown that Toronto’s rental market continues to tighten as demand for housing in the city soars from millennials, down-sizing baby boomers and an influx of new tech and financial-services workers. High home prices, rising mortgage rates and new government regulations have priced out many buyers, pushing them into the rental market.

Rents in the GTA have risen sharply over the past two years as vacancy rates decline. More upward momentum in purpose-built rental construction is required to meet overall demand.
The total inventory of purpose-built rentals coming under construction rose to 11,172 units, according to Urbanation, a real estate consulting firm that specializes in the condo market. That’s the highest level in more than 30 years and 56% more than last year. Just 60 such buildings have been completed since 2005.

At the same time, construction starts of rental buildings slowed to 826 units in the third quarter, dropping from a recent high of 2,635 starts in the second quarter. The Ontario government’s broadening of rent controls to all newly constructed units is a deterrent to the volume of new supply necessary to meet the city’s rental housing demand.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres