DLC BLOG
CMHC Changes to Assist Self-Employed Borrowers

As a self-employed person myself, I was happy to hear that CMHC is willing to make some changes that will make it easier for us to qualify for a mortgage.
In an announcement on July 19, 2018, the CMHC has said “Self-employed Canadians represent a significant part of the Canadian workforce. These policy changes respond to that reality by making it easier for self-employed borrowers to obtain CMHC mortgage loan insurance and benefit from competitive interest rates.” — Romy Bowers, Chief Commercial Officer, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. These policy changes are to take effect Oct. 1, 2018.

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DLC BLOG
Refinances, Renewals & Transfers

After you have purchased your new home, closed on your new mortgage, and are all moved in, what comes next?

Well, when it comes to your mortgage, the next step is to either refinance, renew, or transfer your mortgage. This decision can be made one month into your new mortgage or one month before your new mortgage is set to mature. Below is a break-down on what a refinance, renewal, and transfer mean.

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DLC BLOG
5 Reasons why every realtor needs a mortgage broker at their open houses

Realtor Safety – While we do not have the safety issues that realtors experience south of the border, there have been incidents involving female realtors being assaulted or feeling uncomfortable being alone with strangers walking around the house.

Property Safety – Did you know that when a realtor is holding an open house they are liable for any losses or damage to the property? It’s pretty easy to have one person distract the agent upstairs while their partner runs off with the flat screen TV or the silverware. Another person in the property discourages theft and can make the realtor feel safer.

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DLC BLOG
Porting a Mortgage?

Porting a mortgage is something similar to transferring a mortgage. Transfers are when you move your current mortgage to a different lender in order to take advantage of different interest rates or mortgage products.

Porting a mortgage is when you keep your lender, but move your mortgage to a different property. Now, not every lender allows you to port a mortgage, and not every property can qualify for a port.

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DLC BLOG
Remodeling Your Home This Summer

Remodeling Your Home This Summer. With most of the summer still ahead, it seems like the best time for rest and relaxation. Or… it could mean the perfect opportunity to make those changes around the house that they have been waiting to do since the Spring!

A renovation or remodel on your home could mean excellent returns on your investment. We’ve all seen the TV shows, like Fixer Upper or Love It or List It on HGTV, that demonstrate just how far a fresh coat of paint and decluttering can go to help raise the value of your home when trying to sell it. Sometimes a renovation budget can be as easy as a can of paint but there are other times that you need to add an extra bathroom or bedroom which cost substantially more.

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DLC BLOG

Rising Interest Rates and the Impact on Real Estate Values

Rising Interest Rates and the Impact on Real Estate Values. Is there a direct connection? In a post entitled Interest Rates and Property Values. What’s the Connection?, I suggested that there was. An example was given which suggested that mortgage lenders would be directly impacted by a rise in rates, as their underwriting parameters, most notably debt service coverage requirements, are directly impacted.

An inability for a buyer to secure the required financing amount, in an environment of increasing interest rates will, I argue, impact their willingness to offer as high a purchase price. Arguably a lower debt level will necessitate a greater amount of equity. This directly diminishes an investors cash-on-cash return. The inevitable result will be a softening of values, since buyers will want to offer less.

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Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
First Monthly Canadian Home Sales Gain This Year In June

National home sales rose by 4.1% in June compared to May, the first such rise this year. Even so, June’s sales activity remains well below the monthly pace of the past five years (see chart). The sales gains were led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) as 60% of all local housing markets reported increased existing home sales.

According to the Toronto Real Estate Board, sales were up 17.6% in the GTA on a seasonally adjusted basis between May and June.

In contrast, sales in British Columbia continued to moderate. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported a 14.4% decline in home sales last month compared to the month before. June’s sales for the GVA were 28.7% below the 10-year June sales average. On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, sales declined a whopping 37.7%.

National home sales activity declined almost 11% y/y. Annual sales hit a five-year low and stood nearly 7% below the 10-year average for June. Activity came in below year-ago levels in about two-thirds of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by those in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.

“This year’s new stress-test on mortgage applicants has been weighing on homes sales activity; however, the increase in June suggests its impact may be starting to lift,” said CREA President Barb Sukkau. “The extent to which the stress-test continues to sideline home buyers varies by housing market and price range.”

B.C. was hit with a double whammy as the province raised the foreign purchase tax as well. Also, mortgage rates have risen increasing the burden of the new stress tests.

Looking ahead, home sales and price gains will likely be dampened by higher interest rates as the Bank of Canada just hiked the benchmark rate once more last week. The prime rate rose from 3.45% to 3.70% in the wake of the rate hike, while the posted 5-year fixed mortgage rate–the critical stress-test yield–remained steady at 5.34%. Nevertheless, more upward pressure on mortgage rates is likely over the next couple of years as economic activity bumps up against capacity limits and inflation edges upward. The Bank made it very clear that further interest rate hikes are on the way but reiterated that it will be taking a gradual approach to future increases, guided by incoming economic data and a recognition that the economy is more sensitive to interest rate movements now than it was in the past.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes fell in June by 1.8% and also remained below levels for the month in recent years. New listings declined in a number of large urban markets including those in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, Calgary Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal.

With new listings up and sales virtually unchanged, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 50.6% in May compared to 53.2% in April and stayed within short reach of the long-term average of 53.4%. Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, about two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in May 2018.

There were 5.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of May 2018. While this marks a three-year high for the measure, it remains near the long-term average of 5.2 months.

Home Prices

On a national basis, the Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose only 0.9% y/y in June 2018, marking the 14th consecutive month of decelerating y/y gains. It was also the smallest annual increase since September 2009.

Decelerating y/y home price gains have reflected mainly trends at play in Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) housing markets tracked by the index. Home prices in the region have begun to stabilize and trend higher on a month-over-month basis in recent months.

Condo apartment units again posted the most substantial y/y price gains in June (+11.3%), followed by townhouse/row units (+4.9%); However, price gains for these homes have decelerated this year. By contrast, one-storey and two-storey single-family home prices were again down in June (-1.8% and -4.1% y/y respectively).

Benchmark home prices in June were up from year-ago levels in 8 of the 15 markets tracked by the index (see Table below).

Home price growth is moderating in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia (Greater Vancouver Area: +9.5% y/y; Fraser Valley: (+18.4%), Victoria (+10.6%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+16.5%).

Within the GGH region, price gains have slowed considerably on a y/y basis but remain above year-ago levels in Guelph (+3.5%). By contrast, home prices in the GTA, Oakville-Milton and Barrie were down from where they stood one year earlier (GTA: -4.8%; Oakville-Milton: -2.9%; Barrie and District: -6.5%). The declines reflect rapid price growth recorded one year ago and masks recent month-over-month price gains in these markets.

Calgary and Edmonton benchmark home prices were down slightly on a y/y basis (Calgary: -1.0%; Edmonton: -1.5%), while prices declines in Regina and Saskatoon were comparatively more substantial (-6.1% and -2.9%, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by 7.9% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 9.1% increase in two-storey single-family home prices), by 6.4% in Greater Montreal (driven by a 7.4% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and by 6% in Greater Moncton (led by a 6.5% increase in one-storey single-family home prices).

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in June 2018 was just under $496,000, down 1.3% from one year earlier. While this marked the fifth month in a row in which the national average price was down on a y/y basis, it was the smallest decline among them.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the Greater Vancouver and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts almost $107,000 from the national average price, trimming it to just over $389,000.

Bottom Line

Housing markets continue to adjust to regulatory and government tightening as well as to higher mortgage rates. The speculative frenzy has cooled, and multiple bidding situations are no longer commonplace in Toronto and surrounding areas. The housing markets in the GGH appear to have bottomed, and supply constraints may well stem the decline in home prices in coming months. The slowdown in housing markets in the Lower Mainland of B.C. accelerated last month as the sector continues to reverberate from provincial actions to dampen activity, as well as the broader regulatory changes and higher interest rates.

Five-year fixed mortgage rates have already risen roughly 110 basis points, while rates for new variable mortgages rose by close to 40 basis points. Since the implementation of new mortgage standards, nonprice lending conditions for mortgages and home equity lines of credit have also tightened. Additional rate hikes by the Bank of Canada are coming, although the Bank will remain cautious particularly in light of continued trade tensions with the United States.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

DLC BLOG
Rate Holds Explained

Have you ever heard of the term rate hold? If you have ever worked with a mortgage broker, chances are, you have!

Rate holds are something that the majority of lenders offer to potential clients purchasing a new home who need a mortgage. Rate holds are generally not given out for people refinancing their mortgage or looking to transfer it from one lender to another.

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DLC BLOG
10 SECRET “To-Do’s” After you file Consumer Proposal or Bankruptcy

Many people go through challenges in life that affect their finances. Divorce, job loss, health issues top the most common reasons. I commend you on getting your finances sorted out and back on track. The moment you FILE that consumer proposal or bankruptcy is the time to start rebuilding your credit history. YES, there are companies that can help with that. Too often I see people waiting YEARS to pay off their debt program before getting credit again, which sets you back two years.

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Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Poloz Opens The Door For More Rate Hikes

Bank on Hold As Housing Expected to Continue to Slow
As expected, the Bank of Canada hiked its key overnight rate this morning by 25 basis points to 1.5%. What wasn’t expected was the hawkish tone of the press release which brushed aside the threat of greater protectionism, instead emphasizing the need for higher interest rates to keep inflation near its target. In today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank maintained its forecast for growth of the global economy. The U.S. economy, however, has proven stronger than expected, “reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen. Yet, the Canadian dollar is lower, reflecting broad-based U.S. dollar strength and concerns about trade actions.”

Canada’s economy continues to operate close to full capacity. “Household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines.” The ratio of household debt to disposable income is edging down as household credit growth continues to slow (chart below).

Consumer spending growth has been slowing since mid-2017, led by a pullback in interest-sensitive components such as vehicle purchases, furniture, appliances and dwelling maintenance. With the slowdown in housing purchases, housing-related spending has also slowed.

The sensitivity of consumption and housing to interest rates is estimated to be larger than in past cycles, given the elevated ratio of household debt to disposable income. The impact of higher interest rates likely differs across categories of borrowers, with highly indebted households the most affected.

The Bank said that “Recent data suggest housing markets are beginning to stabilize following a weak start to 2018.” The July MPR report estimates that housing will contribute a mere 0.1 percentage points to growth this year, with no contribution in 2019 and a slightly negative impact in 2020 (see Table below). The MPR elaborated that residential investment is slowing, reflecting the effects of higher interest rates and tighter mortgage rules. Resale activity contracted when the revised measures went into effect but is anticipated to improve over the next few quarters. Data on resale activity and housing starts suggest that the housing market is beginning to stabilize. The growth of new construction spending is expected to slow over the projection horizon. The new mortgage measures may cause households to purchase less-expensive residences because typical homebuyers are now more constrained in how much they can borrow.

Meanwhile, exports are buoyed by strong global demand and higher commodity prices. “Business investment is growing in response to solid demand growth and capacity pressures, although trade tensions are weighing on investment in some sectors. Overall, the Bank still expects average growth of close to 2% over 2018-2020.” This is somewhat above the Bank’s estimate of noninflationary growth at full capacity, the so-called ‘potential’ growth rate.

Inflation remains near 2%, consistent with an economy close to capacity. The Bank estimates that underlying wage growth is running at about 2.3%, slower than would be expected at full employment. The actual growth rate in wages has recently been boosted by increases in the minimum wage rate in some provinces.

These economic projections take into account the estimated impact of tariffs on steel and aluminium recently imposed by the U.S., as well as the countermeasures enacted by Canada. “Although there will be difficult adjustments for some industries and their workers, the effect of these measures on Canadian growth and inflation is expected to be modest.”

The Bank wrapped up its press release with the following statement: “Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target and will continue to take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank is monitoring the economy’s adjustment to higher interest rates and the evolution of capacity and wage pressures, as well as the response of companies and consumers to trade actions.”

Bottom Line: This rate hike signals that the Bank of Canada is determined to bring its benchmark overnight rate back to more normal levels and that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate increases. The Bank believes that stronger-than-expected business investment, higher oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar offset the adverse effect of greater trade uncertainty. Exports have surprised on the upside because of strong global demand.

The mix of growth in Canada has shifted from housing and consumption to exports and business investment–the desired result of the many tightening moves introduced by the government, the central bank and the regulators to slow the rise in household debt. The Bank believes that this shift in the composition of growth will result in a more sustainable expansion.

Markets expect the Bank to gradually hike the benchmark rate until it reaches 2% or 2-1/4% by the end of 2019–implying another 2 or 3 rate hikes by the end of next year. Governor Poloz said today at the press conference that the Bank’s assessment of the neutral rate for the benchmark is 2-1/2% to 3%, but it is uncertain how quickly we will get there.

The Governing Council of the Bank is scheduled to meet again on September 5. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 24, 2018.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca