28 Feb

The Activist Budget—There Is No Problem This Government Cannot Fix

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

The Activist Budget—There Is No Problem This Government Cannot Fix

May's employment growth builds on gains since July 2016
Patting himself on the back, the Finance Minister opened his speech by reminding us that “a little over two years ago…Canadians had the opportunity to stay the course. They could stick with a Government that favoured cuts and a set of failed policies that produced stubborn unemployment and the worst decade of economic growth since the depths of the Great Depression.” This, of course, was Stephen Harper’s Conservative Government. Never mind that the global financial crisis caused the recession, not the “failed policies” of the previous government. Throughout the budget documents, the message is that austerity was “needless” or “excessive.” Instead, Canadians chose, “a more confident and more ambitious approach…that gave Canadians the tools they needed to succeed. Starting with raising taxes on the wealthiest, so we could lower them for the middle class.”

The Liberals have forgotten their promise to run deficits no larger than $10 billion and to balance the budget by 2019. Instead, they now see sound fiscal management as a declining debt-to-GDP ratio—never mind that double-digit deficits remain as far as the eye can see—to a stunning $12.3 billion deficit at the end of the forecast horizon in fiscal year (FY) 2022-23.

The deficit figures have indeed improved—down more than $2.0 billion in FYs 2017 and 2018–thanks to the stronger-than-expected economy and rapidly reduced unemployment last year. But, initiatives in today’s federal budget add $6.3 billion to the current year’s (ending March 31, 2018) budget deficit, $5.4 billion to next year’s federal red ink and an additional $2.0-to-$3.0 billion annually over the forecast horizon ending in FY 2022-23 (see Table below).

Fortunately, Canada has by far the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the G7, reflective of the austerity programs of the past, beginning in the mid-1990s and continuing until the financial crisis in 2008-09 when counter-cyclical global fiscal policy was essential to assure financial stability and rebounding economic activity by late-2009. While the U.S. and much of the rest of the developed world suffered the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression, Canada’s was the shortest and mildest recession in the postwar period—contrary to the impression left by the Finance Minister in his opening remarks.

Thanks to this backdrop, the debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada will continue to decline despite continued fiscal stimulus. The ratio is forecast to gradually edge downward from 30.4% this year to 28.4% in 2022-23, assuming the economy continues to grow. Clearly, all bets are off if we hit a pothole, such as the end of NAFTA or a recurrence of plunging oil prices.

Budget 2018 proposes to:

• Put more money in the pockets of those who need it the most, by improving access to the Canada Child Benefit and introducing the Canada Workers Benefit, a stronger and more accessible benefit that will replace the Working Income Tax Benefit.

• Make significant progress towards equality of opportunity, by taking leadership to address the gender wage gap, supporting equal parenting, tackling gender-based violence and sexual harassment, and introducing a new entrepreneurship strategy for women.

• Support the next generation of researchers, by providing historic funding to increase opportunities for young researchers and provide them the equipment they need, while strengthening support for entrepreneurs to innovate, scale up and reach global markets.

• Advance reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, by helping to close the gap between the quality of life of Indigenous and non-Indigenous people, providing greater support to keep First Nations children safe and supported within their communities, accelerating progress on clean drinking water, housing, and employment, and supporting recognition of rights and self determination.

• Protect the environment for future generations, by making historic investments to preserve our natural heritage, ensuring a price is put on carbon pollution across Canada, and extending support for clean energy projects.

• Uphold Canada’s shared values and support the health and wellness of Canadians, by partnering with provinces and territories to address the opioid crisis, taking action to advance national pharmacare, and bolstering support for Canada’s official languages.

This list summarizes 367 pages of more than 100 relatively small government initiatives impacting everything from Workers Benefits payments to low-income families, improving access to the Canada Child Benefit to supporting opportunities for women, pay equity for federal workers, strengthening trade, improving worker skills, and cracking down on tax evasion—all of this among the roughly 25 government actions described in Chapter 1 under the heading of Growth. The details of changes in the rules regarding the holding of passive investments inside private corporations as well as closing tax loopholes fall under this Growth rubric.

Chapter 2, called Progress, includes more than 35 initiatives under the headings of Investing in Canadian scientists and researchers, Stronger and more collaborative Federal science, and Innovation and Skills Plan—a more client-focussed Federal partner for business.

Chapter 3, Reconciliation, largely deals with Indigenous Peoples, including roughly 20 actions.

And finally, Chapter 4, called Advancement, covers the environment under Canada’s Natural Legacy, Canada and the World, Upholding Shared Values, and Security and Access to Justice. I lost count here at over 40 initiatives.

And, that’s not all! A bonus section called Equality, goes into detail regarding Canada’s commitment to gender budgeting, which includes $6.7 million over five years for “Statistics Canada to create a new Centre for Gender, Diversity and Inclusion Statistics, a Centre that will act as a Gender Budget Accounting data hub to support future, evidenced-based policy development and decision-making”.

I kid you not. At my rough count, I have been to 34 budget lock-ups, but I can’t remember ever seeing anything like this for sheer magnitude of the number of relatively tiny initiatives, nor can I ever remember leaving a lock-up with such a screaming headache.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

28 Feb

Fixed versus variable interest rates

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

Fixed versus variable interest rates

Fixed versus variable interest ratesFixed Interest Rates

This is usually the more popular choice for clients when it comes to deciding on which type of interest rate they want. There are many reasons why, but the most unsurprising answer is always safety. With a fixed interest rate, you know exactly what you are paying every month and you know that the amount of interest being charged for the term of your mortgage will not increase and it will not decrease.

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26 Feb

What is a Collateral Mortgage?

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

What is a Collateral Mortgage?

What is a Collateral Mortgage?A collateral mortgage is a way of registering your mortgage on title. This type of registration is sometimes used by banks and credit unions. Monoline lenders, on the other hand, rarely register your mortgage as a collateral charge – which is an all-indebtedness charge that allows you to access the equity in the home over and above your mortgage, up to the total charge registered.

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23 Feb

6 Reasons To Get A Home Inspection Before You Buy

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

6 Reasons To Get A Home Inspection Before You Buy

6 Reasons To Get A Home Inspection Before You BuyIn an active housing market sometimes buyers are urged by their realtors to make an offer with no conditions. As a mortgage broker this always makes my heart skip a beat. I know from experience that financing can go sideways and you need to be sure it’s in place before removing conditions.
Another item that should not be forgotten is a house inspection. You may have a good eye for décor but house inspections are not for amateurs. We have all heard, “Never judge a book by its cover” so why would you make the most important purchase in your life without checking it out? This may be the best $300-$500 you ever spent. Here’s why.

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23 Feb

Foreclosure Not Automatic on Default

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

Foreclosure Not Automatic on Default

Foreclosure Not Automatic on DefaultAccording to a recent case tried in the Court of Appeal for Ontario, Winters v Hunking, 2017 ONCA 909 as summarized by Scott McGrath of WeirFoulds LLP, Foreclosure is not automatic on default.

In an interesting article posted December 8, 2017 in Mondaq, Scott McGrath reminds us that the Court may have acknowledged the Lender was within their rights to commence foreclosure proceedings, but special circumstances “made such a foreclosure unjust in the circumstances”.

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21 Feb

Use home buyers’ plan (HBP) more than once

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG RRSP –

Use home buyers’ plan (HBP) more than once

RRSP – Use home buyers’ plan (HBP) more than onceUnder the home buyers’ plan, a participant and his or her spouse or common- law partner is allowed to withdraw up to $25,000 from his or her RRSP to buy a home. Before 1999, only the first- time home buyers are permitted to buy a home under this plan. Now a person can take an advantage of HBP plan more than one, two, three, four or more times as long as the participant in this plan fulfills all other conditions. The house can be existing or can be built.

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16 Feb

Pre-Sales- Safe of New Rules?

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
Pre-Sales- Safe of New Rules?

Pre-Sales- Safe of New Rules?The best part about pre-sales, especially for first time home buyers, is it allows you to reserve a unit for the cost of a deposit and have a significant amount of time to get everything in order. You can save money while renting or living at home, arrange a mortgage that best suits your needs, take advantage of higher income if your employer has scheduled raises, cash in on property appreciation without making a mortgage payment, a lot of good things.

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16 Feb

Canadian Home Sales Slide In January Led By Greater Golden Horseshoe

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper - Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Canadian Home Sales Slide In January Led By Greater Golden Horseshoe

May's employment growth builds on gains since July 2016
It is no surprise that housing activity slowed in January following a pulling-forward sales surge as homebuyers hurried to purchase before the mortgage rule changes in 2018. The January 1 implementation of the new OSFI B-20 regulations requires that uninsured mortgage borrowers be stress-tested at a mortgage rate 200 basis points above the contract rate at federally regulated financial institutions.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that housing activity retreated to the lowest monthly level in three years in January. Sales were down in three-quarters of all local markets, including virtually all major urban centres. Many of the larger declines in percentage terms were posted in Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) markets, where sales had picked up late last year following the announcement of tighter mortgage rules coming into effect in January.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 2.4% from January 2017 and stood close the 10-year average for January. Sales came in below year-ago levels in about half of all local markets, led by those in the GGH region. By contrast, sales were up on a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and Vancouver Island, the Okanagan Region, Edmonton, Montreal, Greater Moncton and Halifax-Dartmouth.

According to the CREA President Andrew Peck, “The piling on of yet more mortgage rule changes that took effect starting New Year’s Day has created homebuyer uncertainty and confusion. At the same time, the changes do nothing to address government concerns about home prices that stem from an ongoing supply shortage in major markets like Vancouver and Toronto. Unless these supply shortages are addressed, concerns will persist.”

New Listings Fall Sharply

The number of newly listed homes plunged 21.6% in January to reach the lowest level since the spring of 2009. New supply was down in about 85% of all local markets, led by a sizeable decline in the GTA. Large percentage declines were also recorded in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and Vancouver Island, the Okanagan Region, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Kitchener-Waterloo, London and St. Thomas, Kingston and Ottawa, closely mirroring the list of markets that saw the most significant sales declines in January.
With new listings having fallen by more than sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 63.6% in January compared to the mid-to-high 50% range to which it held since last May.

A national sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40% and 60% is generally consistent with a balanced national housing market, with readings below and above this range indicating buyers’ and sellers’ markets respectively. That said, the balanced range can vary among local markets.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with its long-term average, a little over half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in January 2018. The ratio in many markets moved one standard deviation or more above its long-term average in January due to large declines in new supply.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2018, which is close to the long-term average of 5.2 months.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 7.7% y-o-y in January 2018. January’s annual price increase was the 9th consecutive deceleration in y-o-y gains, continuing a trend that began last spring. It was also the smallest y-o-y increase since December 2015. The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides the best way of gauging price trends because average price trends are prone to be strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.
The deceleration in y-o-y price gains mainly reflects trends among GGH housing markets (the broad region surrounding Toronto) tracked by the index. While prices in the area have primarily stabilized in recent months, ongoing deceleration in y-o-y comparisons reflects the rapid rise in prices one year ago.

Apartment units again posted the most significant y-o-y price gains in January (+20.1%), followed by townhouse/row units (+12.3%), one-storey single family homes (+4.3%), and two-storey single family homes (+2.3%).

Composite benchmark home prices in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia continue to trend higher after having dipped briefly during the second half of 2016 (Greater Vancouver: +16.6% y-o-y; Fraser Valley: +22.4% y-o-y). Apartment units have been driving this regional trend in recent months, with single family home prices stable.

Benchmark home prices rose by about 14% on a y-o-y basis in Victoria and by about 20% elsewhere on Vancouver Island. These gains are similar to those recorded during the fourth quarter of last year.

Price gains have slowed considerably on a y-o-y basis in the GTA, Guelph, and Oakville-Milton; however, home prices in the former two markets remain above year-ago levels (GTA: +5.2% y o-y; Guelph: +10.9% y-o-y; Oakville-Milton: -1.2% y-o-y). Monthly prices in these markets have shown signs of stabilizing in recent months after having climbed rapidly in early 2017 and subsequently retreated.

Calgary benchmark home prices were down slightly (-0.5% y-o-y), as were home prices in Regina and Saskatoon (-4.9% y-o-y and -4.1% y-o-y, respectively).

Benchmark home prices rose by 7.2% y-o-y in Ottawa (led by an 8.1% increase in two-storey single family home prices), by 5.2% in Greater Montreal (led by a 6.2% increase in in two-storey single family home prices) and by 7.5% in Greater Moncton (driven by an 11% increase in one-storey single family home prices). (Table below).

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

16 Feb

Improving your credit score

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

Improving your credit score

Improving your credit scoreYour credit score is a big factor when you apply for a mortgage. It can dictate how good your interest rate will be and the type of mortgage you qualify for.

Mortgage Professionals are experienced helping clients with a wide range of credit scores so we can find you a mortgage product even if your credit is far from perfect.

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14 Feb

The role of the insurer in a mortgage

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG

The role of the insurer in a mortgage

The role of the insurer in a mortgageAny time a down payment for the mortgage is less than 20%, it is required that the mortgage must be insured thru an Insurer. Why does this mortgage need to be insured, who provides this type of insurance, what does this insurance mean, who is the beneficiary, how much does this insurance cost? All these questions need to be addressed when your down payment is less than 20%.
To start, we need to know certain terms.

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