31 Aug

Q2 Canadian Growth Rebounded to 2.9%

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Q2 Canadian Growth Rebounded to 2.9%

This morning, Stats Canada released the second quarter GDP figures indicating a sharp rebound in growth to its most robust pace in a year. Real gross domestic product growth accelerated to 2.9% (all figures quoted in annual rates), up sharply from the 1.4% pace in Q1. The Q2 result is only slightly above the Bank of Canada’s 2.8% forecast released in the April Monetary Policy Report, tempering the expectation of a BoC rate hike at next Wednesday’s policy meeting.

First quarter growth had been depressed by a plunge in housing* (see note below), which fell by a whopping 10.5% annual rate in Q1. Investment in housing increased to a modest 1.1% annual rate in the second quarter. Declines in ownership transfer costs continued, but at a more modest pace than in Q1, while new residential construction contracted for the first time since the third quarter of 2016.However, these declines were more than offset by a sharp gain in outlays for renovations.

The strengthening growth in Q2 mainly reflected a surge in exports (+12.3%)–the biggest quarterly gain since 2014–due in part to notable increases in energy products and consumer goods, particularly pharmaceutical products. Exports of aircraft, aircraft engines, and aircraft parts increased sharply on higher shipments of business jets to both the U.S. and non-U.S. countries. Exports of services edged down a bit. Net exports (exports minus imports of goods and services) grew at a 6.5% annual rate in Q2 compared to 4.2% in the prior quarter.

Also boosting growth was stronger consumer spending. Household final consumption expenditure (+2.6%) increased at more than twice the pace of the first quarter, reversing the downward trend over the previous three quarters. Growth was attributable primarily to outlays on services (+3.2%), which outpaced outlays on goods. Housing-related expenses (housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels), up at a 2.4% annual rate, contributed the most to the widespread growth in consumption of services.

Household spending on goods grew at a 2% annual rate following a flat first quarter, with rebounds in semi-durable and non-durable goods. Purchases of vehicles declined at a 2% annual rate. One negative in the consumption numbers may be that the increased spending was financed by a lower household savings rate. The consumer saving rate fell to 3.4% in Q2 compared to 3.9% in Q1 and 4.5% in the final quarter of last year.

Despite the sharp improvement in growth in Q2, market watchers might be disappointed as slowing business investment brought growth in below the 3.5% forecast of some Bay Street economists. The Canadian dollar dropped in immediate response to the report.

Business investment in non-residential structures, machinery and equipment and computers and computer peripheral equipment decelerated to its slowest pace since the fourth quarter of 2016, which might well have reflected the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of NAFTA and the imposition of tariffs on a growing number of Canadian exports to the U.S. Business sentiment and investment in capital formation is an important leading indicator of future growth, so the Q2 slowdown bodes poorly for the outlook. Most analysts are forecasting a marked slowdown in GDP growth in the current quarter to less than 2%.

Interest Rate Outlook

In light of the deceleration in business investment, the Bank of Canada has little reason to hike interest rates at the Bank’s next policy meeting on September 5. Investors are betting that a rate hike in October is a near certainty according to Bloomberg Canada.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz played down inflation worries and the prospect of aggressive interest rate increases last week at a Fed conference in the U.S. Poloz argued that the recent spike in inflation to 3% in July, the highest in the G-7, was due to transitory factors that would eventually be reversed. The wage measures in today’s GDP report, along with the separate May employment earnings numbers, point to the Bank of Canada’s ‘wage-common’ measure rising 2.4% in Q2, little changed from the increase in the first quarter.

Even though Canada is bumping up against capacity constraints and labour shortages are rising, Governor Poloz appears to be in no hurry to bring interest rates all the way back to non-stimulative levels. He has repeatedly made a case for gradualism citing heightened uncertainty over geopolitics and trade as well as economists’ inability to measure critical parameters like potential growth.

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark interest rate four times since July 2017 to cool the economy, and market indicators suggest investors are expecting as many as three more hikes over the next year, after which the central bank is anticipated to go into a long pause. That will leave the target for the benchmark rate, currently at 1.5%, at 2.25%–below the 3% “neutral” rate the Bank estimates as a final, non-stimulative resting place for overnight borrowing costs.

Notes:

*Housing investment in the GDP accounts is technically called “Gross fixed capital formation in residential structures”. It includes three major elements:

new residential construction;
renovations; and
ownership transfer costs.
New residential construction is the most significant component. Renovations to existing residential structures are the second largest element of housing investment. Ownership transfer costs include all costs associated with the transfer of a residential asset from one owner to another. These costs are as follows:

real estate commissions;
land transfer taxes;
legal costs (fees paid to notaries, surveyors, experts, etc.); and
file review costs (inspection and surveying).

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

31 Aug

Your mortgage broker is here to help

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
Your mortgage broker is here to help

For many people in Canada, they are first-time home buyers. Or if they are new to Canada, it’s their first home purchase in a new country. They may not be aware of the rules and guidelines. It’s the job of your mortgage broker to make you aware of what is expected from you to avoid disappointment.

Mortgage Documentation
90-day bank statements – It’s important to make your clients aware that they need 90 days of bank statements to show they have saved the funds needed for the down payment and closing costs. Closing costs vary by province, so it’s important to let out-of-province buyers know exactly what the costs are in their new home. I like to explain that the 90-day statements is meant to prevent money laundering. A few years before this law was enacted, gangs would find an elderly couple and offer them the down payment funds asking only to be allowed to grow a few plants in the basement.

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31 Aug

Is easy money coming to an end?

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
Is easy money coming to an end?
In a previous post, I discussed interest rates and their effect on real estate values. I argued that they did indeed alter buyer perceptions, and consequently value and price. But what about absolute interest rate levels? Is easy money coming to an end?

Many lack any experience of high interest rates
In a June 5, 2017 Globe and Mail article entitled Remember When: What have we learned from the 1980’s and that 21% interest rate?, author Richard Blackwell quotes CIBC World Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal “We have a generation of Canadians who have never experienced high, or even rising, interest rates,”. He goes on to say “For them, those extremely low interest rates are a given.” Are interest rates likely to test those levels in the future? Likely not, for a host of reasons. First, inflationary pressures seem not to be as prevalent. Yes, you could argue there is price volatility, and a quick trip to the local gas station will confirm that opinion. However globalization seems to have had a positive impact over the past several years.

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31 Aug

What happens when your credit card account is closed

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
What happens when your credit card account is closed

I have been working in the mortgage industry since 2005. I have had all sorts of clients over the years. Every once in a while I get someone who has a car loan , a couple of credit cards but there’s a collection from a credit card, a dentist or some other creditor.

When I ask why this has not been paid, I am told that they had a dispute with this firm and they are not going to be pushed around. The client doesn’t care if the account is sent to collection, they won’t pay it just on principle.

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31 Aug

Reverse Mortgage – Need to Know

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
Reverse Mortgage – Need to Know

HomeEquity Bank is the only bank in Canada that currently offers the CHIP Reverse Mortgage as well as a secondary product, Income Advantage. These two products are options for homeowners unlike anything else out there. Instead of borrowing money to purchase a house, they will lend you money if you already have purchased one (as long as you qualify).

Recently I finished a half-day seminar where I was educated on the different HomeEquity Bank offers through the CHIP Reverse mortgage and their Income Advantage products. Below I would like to share with you some of the key benefits and summarize the different ways you can potentially use these products.

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24 Aug

Buying a home as a new Canadian

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
Buying a home as a new Canadian

Canada is made up of hundreds of thousands of people, and while some did not start here, they have made it their home. Buying a home, especially when you are new to Canada can be mind boggling, BUT, we have a mortgage for you!

The New to Canada Program is designed to help new Canadians purchase their first home sooner and become established faster.

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24 Aug

Toys and buying a home

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
Toys and buying a home

In 2005, I was asked to do a pre-approval by a couple hoping to buy a home. I went through the application with them and pre-approved them for $320,000.

They were astounded. They told me that their bank told them that they were qualified to a maximum of $260,000. They wanted to know how I could get them more money. I looked at their credit reports and quickly found the answer.

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24 Aug

7 Sure-Fire Ways to Grow Your Credit Score

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
7 Sure-Fire Ways to Grow Your Credit Score

Have you ever wished for a simplified guide on how to actually GROW your credit score? Well today is your lucky day! We have had years of experience working with individuals who come to us with poor or damaged credit and we have found 7 steps that prove to be tried and true in fixing it.

First off though—why are we so focused in on credit scores? Simply put, your credit score details your history of borrowing money. It shows how timely you are on payments; how responsible you are with it and how you manage it.

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24 Aug

5 GREAT Reasons To Provide a 20% Down Payment when Buying a Home

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

DLC BLOG
5 GREAT Reasons To Provide a 20% Down Payment when Buying a Home

There are many challenges that come into play when you’re in the market to buy a home.

Buyers say the number one obstacle to home ownership is saving enough for a down payment, the amount that the buyer provides toward the purchase of their home.

Exactly how much do you need to put down? Assuming you can finance the debt with your current income you can get a mortgage for as little as 5% down PLUS pay for Mortgage Default insurance if you put less than 20% down.

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13 Aug

Canada’s Jobless Rate Returned to a Four-Decade Low in July

General

Posted by: Livian Smith

Dr. Sherry Cooper – Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Canada’s Jobless Rate Returned to a Four-Decade Low in July

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment increased in July and the jobless rate fell .2 percentage points to 5.8%–returning to its lowest level since the 1970s posted earlier this year.

The economy added a stronger-than-expected 54,100 net new jobs last month–its most significant advance this year. This gain, however, was driven by increases in part-time work. July’s jobs surge followed the 31,800 rise in June. Both months enjoyed advances well above the 20,000 average monthly gains of the past year.
In the 12 months to July, employment grew by 246,000 (+1.3%), largely reflecting growth in full-time work (+211,000 or +1.4%). Over this period, the total number of hours worked rose by 1.3%.

The job growth last month was primarily in public sector jobs, especially in educational services mainly in Ontario and Quebec. At the national level, the rise was primarily in employment in post-secondary institutions, particularly universities, and was mostly in part-time work. The number of people working in health care and social assistance also rose, mainly in Ontario. In British Columbia, the number of people working increased by 11,000 and the jobless rate was 5.0% (see table below). Job gains were also noted in Newfoundland and Labrador, the first increase since October 2017. The number of workers declined in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while it was little changed in other provinces.

Manufacturing jobs declined by 18,400 in contrast to the record-high jump of 90,500 in the service sector. The surge in service sector employment, however, likely reflected a technical distortion. The timing of hiring in the education sector has been volatile over the summer months in recent years causing a seasonal adjustment problem. The July spike education jobs will likely be unwound in the next two months.

Wags gains slowed during the month, with average hourly wages up 3.2% y/y compared to 3.6% y/y in June. Wage gains for permanent workers were 3%, the slowest this year.

The Canadian economy continues to run at a stronger pace than long-run potential as the labour markets continue to tighten. The jobless rate of 5.8% is below the full-employment level of 6.0%-to-6.5%. A more robust pace of hiring runs the risk of further increasing excess demand, putting upward pressure on inflation. In consequence, the Bank of Canada will continue to withdraw stimulus by gradually hiking overnight rates.

This report has raised the likelihood of another increase in the benchmark overnight rate of 25 basis points, possibly as soon as the next policy meeting in September. Inflation, however, remains at the Bank of Canada’s target of 2.0%, allowing the Bank to wait until the subsequent meeting in October.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres